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I mean, at the time he had a lot of inputs for his model and I have almost none, but his are also just what he thinks.

I mean, at the time he had a lot of inputs for his model and I have almost none, but his are also just what he thinks.

I think he was wrong. I think he underestimated Trump. I don’t think it was 70/30.

I mean, I played competitive LCG before. I completely understand that it’s possible. I have definitely taken and lost on a 60% chance. It’s just not a risk I would take.

And I maintain that he was wrong. I don’t think it was a 70% chance. By the time I got back from voting, he had revised it closer to 55-60%. That seems more accurate to me. I think he underestimated Trump.

I do. At 60%, it’s drawing 3/5 cards. I wouldn’t take that chance. At 70%, it’s 3/4. There’s always a chance of the 1/4, sure. But I expect it to happen.

That’s part of why I’m so uncomfortable right now. I wouldn’t take a coin flip.

Okay and on Election Day 2016 he had it at 60-70% Clinton when I went out to vote. He was very wrong

I happen to live in a Republican controlled district in one of the swing states. The people who are enthusiastic about Trump are extremely enthusiastic. As in, flying Trump-Vance flags in their truck down a major thoroughfare.

And, the Muslim population here may very well not be bluffing and vote for Trump instead of Harris - or simply not vote at all. The Israel-Gaza issue is HUGE here.

Unless our major city pulls through for us, Trump will win our state.

The odds are also stacked against Harris based on how electoral votes are counted. If you ask me who I think will win the popular vote, I think Harris will win. It’s just that the game is so stacked, and Republican controlled regions are, well, making it hard to vote.

Did I mention SCOTUS is not impartial?

Even if you do have DKIM, DMARC, and SPF someone can still spoof your domain and the admin will still get an email about it. After that, instructions are unclear since the receiving domain is rejecting it properly.

Ask me how I know

I don’t screw them in unless it’s in a confined location where the cable is applying pressure to unseat, or if it’s fallen off at least once