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Nate Silver left 538, but he is still hosting the Monte Carlo model at the Silver Bulletin. That model is putting it right around 50-50 for Trump win vs Harris win. That's not a polling average... That's the result of playing a few million elections where the results are based on the current polling average.
Okay and on Election Day 2016 he had it at 60-70% Clinton when I went out to vote. He was very wrong
If everytimw you say something has a 30% chance of happening, it never happens, then your models are wrong because they should say zero percent. If you say something has a 30% chance of happening and it happens, that doesn't mean you were wrong.
It's shocking how many people don't understand percentages.
I do. At 60%, it’s drawing 3/5 cards. I wouldn’t take that chance. At 70%, it’s 3/4. There’s always a chance of the 1/4, sure. But I expect it to happen.
That’s part of why I’m so uncomfortable right now. I wouldn’t take a coin flip.
Not taking the chance isn't the same as it never happening. Speaking as a decently experienced poker player, you can understand your odds, and make the right call, and still lose because of it. It doesn't mean you were wrong, it's just statistics.
I mean, I played competitive LCG before. I completely understand that it’s possible. I have definitely taken and lost on a 60% chance. It’s just not a risk I would take.
And I maintain that he was wrong. I don’t think it was a 70% chance. By the time I got back from voting, he had revised it closer to 55-60%. That seems more accurate to me. I think he underestimated Trump.