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Now that we have final numbers. It appears that Harris had all the white & black support she needed for an EC victory. But Trump outright flipping Latino men and making huge gains with Latino women seems to have made all the difference.
What do you think?
First image is 2024, second is 2020.
White people are so obsessed with blaming an optgroup like what about all the white guys that voted for him
What about all the white women who voted for Trump? Benefitting from structural racism is a helluva drug
... but he'll make my racist life better, he told me! /s
I know! Let's blame EVERYBODY. That way nobody is left out and we can just admit we ALL fucked up so next time we can constructively work together to NOT fuck up instead of slinging mud at each other for the next four years.
Don't forget all the people who voted for Biden in 2020 and didn't fucking vote in 2024
15 million of them. That is a staggering number.
15 million of them. That is a staggering number.
It's also not an accurate number. The official count for Biden in 2020 was about 81.3 million (found many places online, but the official one is a good choice) and the unofficial count for Harris by AP so far is about 74.3 million. That's about 7 million, which is less than half of what you claimed.
People have got to stop just posting straight up false information. If you don't know, don't post.
It would be more appropriate to say outdated. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/11/13/20-million-votes-election-harris-trump-fact-check/76136743007/ As of November 6th 16 million less votes than the year before had been counted.
No, if you said it a week ago it would be outdated. The fact that you're still saying it is what makes it false. As you point it out new information is available. You're just using old information still.
By comparison if I wrote a book in the 1600s about the medical necessity of leaching, that would be outdated today. If I wrote a book about the medical necessity of leaching in 2024 that would just be false.
I think white men and white women bear more of the blame here purely by population size.
With how thin our election margins are, I wonder if literally just misogynists can swing the election. Would 1 in 100 Americans refuse to vote for a woman for president? I think maybe yes.
It's hard to separate out the factors. Would a man have also struggled with a campaign starting so late (and doing so poorly in a previous primary). Would a white women? How can we separate out the influence of race, sex and the less than ideal running circumstances.
Given who she is, and running when she had to, she actually did pretty damn well.
Tbh looking for blame beyond Biden seems pointless to me. She has every sign of having been able to win over more people had she been prepped as the nominee from the start..
Agreed. Despite all the nuances (which are important, too)... Judging by this table, the biggest total blame is on white men, followed by white women and latino men, though there aren't that many of them. But I feel i need to say this doesn't have anything to do with ethnicity. You could also make a chart of city vs rural areas or several other factors and you'd probably also find interesting correlations and shifts in opinion.
Please be careful whenever you ask these questions. It's so easy to blame one single minority group for a widespread failure. Of course analysis of individual voting groups is legitimate, as long as you properly frame what you're doing.
This is a serious issue both because of the connection with racism (i.e., it's the Latinos' fault) and abdication of responsibility (i.e., we bear no responsibility).
As a data analyst, the way the two graphs are setup terribly. There's really not enough information to come up with any conclusions from the charts.
Also, first, there's not enough information from the graphs to determine the situation since it's only by percentages and not population. Second, our system is based on the winners of each state and used by the electoral votes. So overall popular vote isn't going to determine who got elected, even if the chart showed all blue for all demographics.
"Are we out of touch with our core voters?"
"No, it's the voters who are wrong".
This will probably be how the Democrats regroup after the loss.
Need some titles on those columns. I'm guessing red/blue are the usual party colors, but what is the 3rd?
The biggest factor really is disengagement. There where millions who where involved in 2020 that just skipped out this time.
Latino women, I'm available y puedo hablar un poco de español!
😂 ^^ What I took away from the post.
The fact that any group aside from white men voted for trumpism is the issue. The disconnect was the complicit main stream media sane washing the craziness. They put racism/homophobia/fascism on the same level as Harris' policies.
Idk, white folks voting for Trump is an issue if you ask me, a white guy. Too many white folks sane washing his shit. Morning Joe went from "he's a fascist" to "let's put out differences aside". Other whities need to realize this is a grift that will likely kill your own.
Your narrative is that Latinos "shifted right" but I think this is a false framing- it was the Biden/Harris administration that shifted hard right on its proposed immigration policies and it left many Latino voters feeling politically abandoned.
Look at the Democrats' 2024 immigration bill- it is deportations, immigration quotas, and building the wall - while including nothing "left of center" such as amnesty. It is literally a Trump 2016 wishlist.
So the solution to not liking the democrat shift right is to join in with the side off the scale right? I'm not following the logic there...
Populist messaging is popular because it acknowledges that people are suffering and offers easy "solutions" to it.
Most folks don't actually want to hear the details, they're both busy and don't fucking understand it without the benefits of a educational system that has been systemically destroyed for decades.
Trump said he'll fix the economy and blamed Biden, Harris wanted to pretend that the lines went up so things were good because she was effectively burdened as an incumbent candidate.
Harris decentivized her base of support by chasing Lucy's football of Republicans that aren't fucking fascists, going after the Cheney votes of all fucking things, Trump siphoned votes from people that don't quite know how to fix the problem but know there is a problem.
You can point to Harris's specific policies all you want, the people you need to get to the polls and vote for you don't know about them because they're boring.
Why go with republican-light if the real thing exists? Catering to the center and right wing as Democrats is off-putting to basically everyone except libs
? Porque no los dos?
wow, you answer one question about abortion by saying immigrants are rapists and suddenly people feel abandoned. tsk tsk.
White Dude for Harris here. I am sad face
To actually answer the post title you'd have to go state by state in the swing states to see if she could flip enough of them to make a difference. I suspect the bigger problem is still lack of turnout rather than any specific demographic.
A functional, coherent working class policy would've ticked some of those numbers in the campaign's favor across the board without even having to divide by race or gender.
Someone pointed out that a lot of Latinos are effectively white, like Cruz and Rubio.
Miami Cubans are absolutely convinced they're white and not immigrants. Source : 20+ years in Miami
My Cuban ex fling used to say exactly the same thing. I wonder where he is now, and if he's changed his mind? I hope he's doing well and hasn't.
So at what point do they become locals? Caucasian people were also immigrants at some point
If that lasr column is population, latino men are 1/7 compared to white men. So the larger difference is much smaller than it appears. And how did there get to be so many more latino women than men.
Only 4% of Latino men shifted. That chart says Latino men were 5% of the total vote. Harris needed more than another .02%
I think you’re getting confused by the column placement. This appears to be a 19 point shift towards Trump which seems substantial.