CrimeDad

joined 1 year ago
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[–] CrimeDad@lemmy.crimedad.work 5 points 3 hours ago

That's right.

[–] CrimeDad@lemmy.crimedad.work 2 points 3 hours ago

I think this is what I'm looking for. Thank you!

[–] CrimeDad@lemmy.crimedad.work 1 points 3 hours ago

Thanks, but there's plenty of time for me to screw this up yet!

 

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.crimedad.work/post/152929

Here are the other two photos from the series on Pixelfed: image image

cross-posted from: https://pixelfed.crimedad.work/p/crimedad/763216516514804651

Walking Lichen!

I was grilling some steak on my deck when I noticed this camouflaged lacewing larva. Check out this site for better photos and cool facts about it: http://jimmccormac.blogspot.com/2014/10/a-murderous-mobile-lichen.html?m=1

#LichenSubscribe #Mosstodon #Macro #MacroPhotography #bugs #camouflage

@crosspost@lemmy.crimedad.work

 

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.crimedad.work/post/152929

Here are the other two photos from the series on Pixelfed: image image

cross-posted from: https://pixelfed.crimedad.work/p/crimedad/763216516514804651

Walking Lichen!

I was grilling some steak on my deck when I noticed this camouflaged lacewing larva. Check out this site for better photos and cool facts about it: http://jimmccormac.blogspot.com/2014/10/a-murderous-mobile-lichen.html?m=1

#LichenSubscribe #Mosstodon #Macro #MacroPhotography #bugs #camouflage

@crosspost@lemmy.crimedad.work

 

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.crimedad.work/post/152929

Here are the other two photos from the series on Pixelfed: image image

cross-posted from: https://pixelfed.crimedad.work/p/crimedad/763216516514804651

Walking Lichen!

I was grilling some steak on my deck when I noticed this camouflaged lacewing larva. Check out this site for better photos and cool facts about it: http://jimmccormac.blogspot.com/2014/10/a-murderous-mobile-lichen.html?m=1

#LichenSubscribe #Mosstodon #Macro #MacroPhotography #bugs #camouflage

@crosspost@lemmy.crimedad.work

 

Here are the other two photos from the series on Pixelfed: image image

cross-posted from: https://pixelfed.crimedad.work/p/crimedad/763216516514804651

Walking Lichen!

I was grilling some steak on my deck when I noticed this camouflaged lacewing larva. Check out this site for better photos and cool facts about it: http://jimmccormac.blogspot.com/2014/10/a-murderous-mobile-lichen.html?m=1

#LichenSubscribe #Mosstodon #Macro #MacroPhotography #bugs #camouflage

@crosspost@lemmy.crimedad.work

[–] CrimeDad@lemmy.crimedad.work 13 points 1 day ago (2 children)

I did and the one feature she mentioned was that the tiles should be like stones. I guess me figuring it out is part of the gift.

 

My wife asked for a nice mahjong set for Christmas. What sort of features should I look for in a nice set? Where should or shouldn't I shop for one?

If you were born in Latin America or into a Latin American family then I'm pretty sure that makes you Latino even if that's not really your identity. You're also Moroccan-Mexican. You might also be white, but that's always a question of being white enough, which varies depending on the people around you. On many forms in the US you can identify as both white and Latin American because those are different questions.

Okay, but what's the space version of the Boo Box?

[–] CrimeDad@lemmy.crimedad.work 2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Hashtags good.

[–] CrimeDad@lemmy.crimedad.work 3 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Don't forget that this lady really got on the stage at the convention and shouted the lie that the Biden-Harris administration have been working tirelessly for a ceasefire in Gaza.

[–] CrimeDad@lemmy.crimedad.work 2 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Well, genocide shouldn't be up for debate. 🙃

[–] CrimeDad@lemmy.crimedad.work 2 points 4 days ago (3 children)

I think I misunderstood you. For my part, I do not put much hope these days in elections. It's just that for decades now I've been told voting third party meant throwing your vote away. This time you were wasting your vote (and a serious moral principle) to cast it for Harris. It's all just kind of astonishing to me, which is why I made the post.

 

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.crimedad.work/post/151111

With the dust is settling from their defeat on Tuesday, it's becoming clearer that there was some incredible malpractice going on in the Democratic party. As shown in the tweet I linked, Biden delayed dropping out even though his team knew it was going to be a complete blowout for Trump. Then, we have Harris's campaign spending over a billion dollars and still losing all of the swing states she needed to win.

For all the Democrats who would never vote Republican and would have never voted third party, are you now considering voting third party in future elections? If not, what would it take?

 

With the dust is settling from their defeat on Tuesday, it's becoming clearer that there was some incredible malpractice going on in the Democratic party. As shown in the tweet I linked, Biden delayed dropping out even though his team knew it was going to be a complete blowout for Trump. Then, we have Harris's campaign spending over a billion dollars and still losing all of the swing states she needed to win.

For all the Democrats who would never vote Republican and would have never voted third party, are you now considering voting third party in future elections? If not, what would it take?

 

Not completely sure I'm doing it right, but a 2:1 safe state for swing state swap seems like a bad deal. Here's my reasoning:

  • In New Jersey, as an example of a safe state for Harris, Fivethirtyeight has Harris winning in 993 out of 1000 simulated elections. Assuming the same turnout as 2020 of 4,549,457 votes, there's a 0.500546 chance, on average, that a NJ voter will vote for Harris. I figured that out using the BINOM.DIST.RANGE function and the Goal Seek tool in Excel.
  • In Michigan, with a turnout of 5,539,302 voters in 2020, Harris wins in only 605 out of 1000 simulations. Using the same tools above, if you randomly picked any Michigan voter, there's a 0.500059 chance that he or she is voting for Harris.
  • Using the BINOMDIST function with the assumed turnouts and the chances we determined that voters in each of the above states would go for Harris, there's a 3.25986e-4 chance that Michigan is decided by a single vote. Likewise, there's a 2.47681e-5 chance for the same in NJ. Based on the probability that it could shift electoral college votes, a Michigan ballot is distinctly more powerful than an NJ one.
  • If you could could reliably convince one more person to vote like you in NJ, your chances of affecting the NJ outcome only increase to 2.48222e-5.
  • For an NJ voter to match their chances of affecting the Michigan outcome, they would have to command about 1,925 votes besides their own. In other words, there's an almost equal chance of a single vote Harris victory in MI as a 1,926 vote victory in NJ.
  • Therefore, if a Michigan voter values their power, they should not trade their vote for anything less than 1,926 New Jersey votes. The rate should actually be greater to account for welching and Michigan having one more electoral vote than NJ.

Am I missing something?

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/22156613

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/22156612

Matt Sledge
November 4 2024, 1:56 p.m.#

 

I do not have much sympathy for guys like this one, but I doubt that he would have gotten as far along in this plot without the FBI's undercover help.

 

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.crimedad.work/post/149349

Here's a link to the paper referenced by the article. Not sure why it wasn't included with the article. Anyway, this chart stood out to me: image

Don't believe or respect anyone who says the White House is working on a ceasefire deal. This administration has clearly been working on just the opposite.

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/22130019

A report by Brown University’s Watson Institute reveals that since the beginning of the war, the US has spent more than $22 billion on military aid to Israel - from weapons and equipment to the deployment of aircraft carriers. Israel receives more U.S. military aid than any other country and is uniquely able to use that funding to spend on domestic goods.

The total amount of American aid since the start of the war is about NIS 85 billion ($22 billion) based on an average exchange rate by the Bank of Israel over the past year. Most has been delivered but about $5.2 billion will only arrive next year. According to official estimates from the Bank of Israel, the total cost of the war is estimated to be about NIS 250 billion ($65 billion), including around NIS 118 billion ($31 billion) for military costs including army operational costs, replenishment of military equipment, ammunition, and logistical support. Therefore, by a simple calculation, the U.S. has been funding about 70% of the war effort.

 

Here's a link to the paper referenced by the article. Not sure why it wasn't included with the article. Anyway, this chart stood out to me: image

Don't believe or respect anyone who says the White House is working on a ceasefire deal. This administration has clearly been working on just the opposite.

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/22130019

A report by Brown University’s Watson Institute reveals that since the beginning of the war, the US has spent more than $22 billion on military aid to Israel - from weapons and equipment to the deployment of aircraft carriers. Israel receives more U.S. military aid than any other country and is uniquely able to use that funding to spend on domestic goods.

The total amount of American aid since the start of the war is about NIS 85 billion ($22 billion) based on an average exchange rate by the Bank of Israel over the past year. Most has been delivered but about $5.2 billion will only arrive next year. According to official estimates from the Bank of Israel, the total cost of the war is estimated to be about NIS 250 billion ($65 billion), including around NIS 118 billion ($31 billion) for military costs including army operational costs, replenishment of military equipment, ammunition, and logistical support. Therefore, by a simple calculation, the U.S. has been funding about 70% of the war effort.

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