I was wrong too. And I am glad people didn't listen to me.
this post was submitted on 24 Aug 2024
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I was convinced this was true because the message was constantly shoved down my throat
This is pretty much what I was arguing before it happened.
Never been so glad to be so wrong.
They're right that it was risky but they are massively over estimating incumbent advantage and the power of a massive advertising budget. It must have been a very hard call for the DNC to make.
Also hasanabi has no leg to stand on here. He makes a living off stealing other peoples content and spamming out delusional political takes. He is one of the morons people shouldn't listen to.
What delusional takes has Hasan had? Also swapping out Biden definitely wasn't a risk, no one really wanted him, they just didn't want Trump. Which was shown by the big bump Kamala got after Biden dropped out, that bump matches actually a lot with one of the things Hasan talks about. The fact that a faceless democratic politician is much more popular than Biden in polls. Biden was actively hurting the Democrats chances both on the national level and down the ballot. It wasn't a risk to get rid of him, it was obvious that he was hurting Democrats chances overall.
What delusional takes has Hasan had?
In his infinite wisdom and understanding of international affairs Hasan predicted, several times, that Russia would never invade Ukraine, was never going to invade Ukraine in the first place and all warnings from the West were lies to stoke up international tensions.
Days before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Oh man, he doesn't take media talking points at face value and isn't literally clairvoyant to make up for it. What a disappointment. I guess I'll have to find someone else to watch...
That wasn't a delusional take at the time. The reason he thought that was because he thought it would be a stupid move and bad for Russia to invade Ukraine, which turned out to be right with how much it has hurt Russia. Plus I remember at the time even people in Ukraine didn't think it was gonna happen and that it was just America saber rattling. But even so after he was proven wrong he took responsibility and was open about the fact that he was wrong.
Big difference between "I don't think Russia is going to invade" and "Russia will never invade, was never going to invade, everyone who thinks so is stupid", Crimea is just a big joke, anyone who thinks otherwise is "liberal QAnon", the only reason the West is claiming this is because they are stoking tension.
It's the analysis of international affairs at the level of a 15 year old. It's cringe, it's frequently wrong, and it's delusional. There was no fundamental analysis on the feasibility of a Russian ground invasion.
Plus I remember at the time even people in Ukraine didn’t think it was gonna happen and that it was just America saber rattling.
What is this even supposed to mean? Some people probably did. I don't know how this is relevant, to him being so confidently wrong about it.
But even so after he was proven wrong he took responsibility and was open about the fact that he was wrong.
This is irrelevant. His analysis was completely delusional.
At the time people knew it would be a bad move for Russia to invade not because of whether it would militarily go well but because of the sanctions that would follow and hurt the Russian economy. Also when I said people in Ukraine said that I meant government officials. I didn't go more into that as I don't fully remember the context but I remember before the invasion there were news interviews with Ukrainian officials saying that Russia wouldn't invade and that the US shouldn't stoke tensions in the region.
With all of that in mind I think it's fair to think that Russia wasn't actually gonna invade because it would be really stupid for them to do so and the people in the region were saying it wouldn't happen. I don't think that analysis is delusional, the conclusion ended up being wrong but the reasoning behind it was solid at the time. Of course with hind sight you can see more signs and reasons as to why it ended up happening but with the info that was available at the time it made sense as to why invading would be a bad idea. Which was proven right by how badly the war has been going both economically and militarily for Russia.
Twitter is such a great site to read threads. all you need to do to understand what's happening is to read in order of 5, 4, 1, 3, 2.
I get the logic was sound at the time but the logic seems to assume that this is all a game with predefined rules and strategy.
Like yeah, incumbents typically won before, but would that hold up when everyone had an audible groan about voting for Biden?
I feel like most of political strategy could be replaced by just trying to understand the people voting, rather than bundling up correlations into strategy and blindly following them.
Like I feel like if you talked to most random average people, they'd have told you about the oppressive hopelessness they're feeling. Maybe they don't know why they feel that, but the general mood from everyone is that nothing's actively good is going to happens.
So of course getting a new candidate with a hope themed campaign will reawaken our passion, incumbent be damned.
PugJesus won’t like this one
How long until he chides someone for being a fascist enabler for not being a Democrat bootlicker?
I can’t stand the “never criticize a dem or you’re helping the republicans” crowd, it’s how we ended up where we are now. Dems got complacent and ratcheted to the right to appease a “broader base” (how did that work out?)… give the people strong social policies and you will win in landslides
And we cannot stand the "I'll let trump win if I have to" crowd who pretend they aren't fascist
You won’t find that here. But I won’t be silenced about the dumb shit Dems do. Luckily it seems to be happening less this go around. Enabling the genocide in Gaza is still very bad and Biden’s administration (and possibly, by extension, Harris’s campaign) should be criticized heavily for it
I still argue this point.
It's like
You know, this is risky and we can't afford this risk
but it was great
but risk is more than anecdotes
The odds are the odds; and those expressing concern know the odds. For god's sake, we mandate smoke detectors, people.
Having said, that, of course I hope this changed effort succeeds in preserving democracy so we can vote on issues we should be able to debate -- whether a seditious felon can try to run the country should be a brief joke before we confirm people have rights and safety and health and well-being and other detail-ridden goals we should have been addressing in the last decade instead of this mess.