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Oh no. Xi saw through our dastardly reverse psychology. Now we have no choice but to watch him not invade our ally. How horrific.
And the Russians where also very vocal about not invading Ukraine right up to the moment that they did. So what I'm trying to say is "talk is cheap".
I have a spare deck of UNO cards, should the US require them for a strategic response.
You show America, Pooh Bear! Pledge to never attack Taiwan! Really show them by recognizing its sovereignty and normalizing trade relations!
"Taiwan is its own state, and should remain so in perpetuity. China will be their shoreline supporters! --Xi"
submit
"Yeah, that'll show them." Said Xi as he sat back with satisfaction and dipped his hand into a jar of honey.
I've been saying for months that he should reclaim Upper Manchuria or Northern Manchuria. Don't remember what it was called till Russia invaded in 1901. That would give him the military victory he's looking for, and it's not like anyone is gonna complain about Russia being weakened by losing its only warm water Pacific port. It's currently called Vladivostok
I don't think he believes what he says for the reasons hes claiming. I think if he's really set on not invading it's because hes seen how poorly its working for Russia. China wants Taiwans economy, you cant get that if Taiwan looks like Ukraine before you even get control.
If Xi is being serious it's probably because he's realizing he needs to take Taiwan through economic and diplomatic, and probably clandestine diplomatic means. Weather he has a plan for that remains to be seen.
Given Russia's performance in Ukraine, Iran firing 5% of its total stockpile at Israel and having almost nothing get through modern American air defense, and China's own review of military readiness that showed glaring flaws and corruption, any plans China may have had to invade Taiwan should be postponed indefinitely.
Turning local elections in Taiwan in China's favor in the long term seems like the more viable alternative for reunification.
True, even without reunification (what's for?), China gets more by economical means than it would ever has via invasion. It's insane production capacity, belt&road schemes, education and science are a caricature of a suntzian wise guy who wins a war without a battle. Reducing themselves to a war (and probably destroying everything they are jealous of in Taiwan in the process) would be embarassingly stupid. I watch their sabblerattling as a play, but I'm yet to see any benefit from it besides upkeeping the status of those not to fuck with.
My thoughts exactly. Probably tougher than HK but similar playbook, my guess is a slow long term approach would be the most likely to succeed.
he’s realizing he needs to take Taiwan through economic and diplomatic, and probably clandestine diplomatic means
Add in psyops programs. They have been a resounding success against UK and the US for Putin.
He’ll take it through political means, by running candidates that support his regime. Then he will put an end to democracy there. Kind of like Hong Kong.
A) You can't "invade" something you already possess... is how he will spin it when he tries to invade.
B) Didn't Putin say the same thing about Ukraine?
Feb. 12 – After another unfruitful phone call between Biden and Putin, U.S. officials warned that a Russian attack on Ukraine could come at any time. A Kremlin aide accused the West of creating “hysteria.” “The Americans are artificially inflating the hysteria around the so-called planned Russian invasion,” Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters after the call between Biden and Putin. “The preconditions for possible provocative actions of the Ukrainian armed forces are being created alongside these allegations.”
It's like a word for word replay.
I remember Hasan saying "Russia won't invade, this is just the US manufacturing consent" the week before Russia invaded. Then right after they invaded it was all "it was only a matter of time, and here's why it's NATO's fault." It's almost like their "material analysis" is just retrospective bullshit lol
Hey, that's the same excuse cops use for committing war crimes on their own citizens.
while declining to explicitly say whether it would come to Taiwan's aid if China attacked.
“You didn’t want to get involved in the Ukraine conflict militarily for obvious reasons,” a reporter said to Mr. Biden. “Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that?”
“Yes,” Mr. Biden answered flatly.
“You are?” the reporter followed up.
“That’s the commitment we made,” he said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/world/asia/biden-taiwan-china.html
Sounds more like someone came to their senses but tries to save face....hopefully. You never know if this is just a strategic move to make others believe they won't attack.
So this means invasion in sept? If we were to follow what happened in Ukraine?
October and even then you might get the odd Typhoon https://old.reddit.com/r/taiwan/comments/jawz01/does_the_taiwan_strait_really_suffer_from/
I'm imagining Netanyahu, Xi and Putin having their own IM group where they share these blurbs and react with emojis. "Check out what I'll publish lol"
As absurd as it seems sometimes, the One China policy has kept the peace for decades. I wouldn’t toss it out without a very, very good reason.
I mean, to people under 50ish, Taiwan is a stable, functioning democracy with an advanced economy but that didn’t really happen until 1987. It was basically a fascistic military dictatorship prior to that. It’s a much more complicated history than we sometimes acknowledge. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Taiwan_(1945%E2%80%93present)
I’m an elder millennial, I guess, and I was alive but too young to remember Taiwan’s first real elections. I get that the One China policy might feel like a relic of a bygone era since I know it from history books too. But most world leaders are old enough to remember when Taiwan was a dysfunctional, fascistic military dictatorship. It might require another few generations of peace before it’s fully consolidated.
I mean, to put it in perspective, Robocop, Lethal Weapon, and Predator came out in 1987. People old enough to see those movies in theaters remember a different era and likely have a fundamentally different understanding of Taiwan/Mainland relations. Xi, Biden, and Trump are all over 70.
Bro, Trump doesn't know shit about anything. Xi and Biden though know very well.
Frankly it's in Xi's best benefit to not invade Taiwan, because it would cause a collapse of the One China policy. China benefits considerably from the current policy that's ambiguous on recognizing Taiwan. The moment they invade though, that goes away, and it becomes inevitable that Taiwan gains international recognition as independent -- presuming the US helps repel an invasion.
If there's anything we've learned though from the last few years, it's that seemingly intelligent world leaders can make idiotic decisions that go against their best interest -- namely Putin and Ukraine. Xi strikes me as the type of person to keep yesmen like Putin, and that means he could make just as foolish a mistake.
We need to stop acknowledging the one China policy. China is threatening war against Taiwan, and there should be absolutely zero doubt that we don't condone Chinese aggression towards Taiwan.
EU and other allies should of course not support it either.
I mean China can't really do anything about the autonomous mainland provinces steadfastly refusing to declare independence, even if you can find precedent of a sovereign state kicking out its provinces unilaterally it'd still be a dick move.
What? I have no idea where that came from? The One China policy is about reuniting Taiwan with mainland China.
In principle I don't mind that China wants Taiwan to reunite with China, as long as they are perfectly peaceful about it, like with Germany and Est Germany.
But what are you talking about?
The one China policy is first and foremost about the principle that there is only one China. Hence the name: That the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China are still locked in a civil war, that neither declared independence from the other. There is no "reuniting" because you cannot unite what is not split, they're still one.
Which is a rather different situation from divided Germany: The East declared independence as a new state, and the West accepted it. The West still considered Eastern citizens who made their way across the border her own citizens, but there was no "you can't have your own sovereign state" stuff going on, from either side. Upon reunification the East re-introduced its federal states, which then jointly but individually joined the West, leaving the East without territory and people which thus vanished in a puff of how international law defines the concept of a state.
The Mainland could pull an East Germany and declare independence at any time, Taipei would accept it. Some old-guard Kuomintang would gripe but they'd get over it. Taipei declaring independence makes no sense... independence from whom? Imperial China? They won that struggle before the PRC even existed. It's the PRC which is rebel faction in the civil war, you don't declare independence from rebels if then you grant them independence and, well, the rebels don't want independence.
They're making a "Taiwan is actually China" joke. Referring to the mainland as "provinces that refuse to declare independence"
"Once China" sounds like a good policy :D
I have no idea how that happened, but it's corrected now.
Of course the only reason you use the term invasion is if the place is outside the borders of your country. Funny.
Tbh, it's not. For example I could say I was gonna invade your wife later today
Thank goodness.
Xi taking a page out of the abusive husband playbook, I see.
He knows China doesn't have the capability to invade Taiwan, but needs to save face. So... the evil foreigners are trying to trick us, but I'm too smart to fall for their tricks!
Fascist propaganda 101, always blame the foreigners for everything.
He knows China doesn’t have the capability to invade Taiwan
Large scale ground invasions are generally a losing game.
But the Chinese strategy towards Taiwan has always been the same strategy as Hong Kong, Tibet, and Mongolia. Become economically invaluable and set policy through soft power.
The only real incentive to send in ground troops would be to respond to a Cuba Missile style escalation. And it no longer looks like the Americans are interested in installing short range missiles on the island, now that they have exhausted themselves arming Ukraine.
Ok. He's copying putain. We are doomed
So far, he's being smarter than monkey putin.
This doesn't mean we should stop deterrence
Well this probably means he'll invade, so yes.
"US is making me do it"
Whatever keeps his ass out of the sling
Now we need a report saying the same for the Russians in Ukraine
It's not a trap, because they were warned beforehand about what would happen if you did it. It's a dare, like in "Jackass!".
This is like Saul Goodman levels of bullshit
We're not starting WWIII over TSMC and nVidia's stock price.
Shit, most of the world won't even recognise Taiwan as a country. I can hardly see Haiti, Paraguay and the Vatican coming to the rescue.
pfft no, but we will fulfill our treaty obligations to the 24 million people who don't deserve china's bullshit.
TSMC has kill switches installed already. China would only get a pile of slag if they tried it. and they won't.
What China should do is reassess the Treaty of Aigun - does it still really apply, considering today's russians are neither the soviet block nor the russian empire? The areas in question are overwhelmingly asian in demographics. There's a whole lot of resources up there just sitting around because russia's never been able to chew bubble gum and walk at the same time, much less persecute a pointless, losing war while exploiting it's own resources.