this post was submitted on 27 Nov 2022
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Short term, no because it's hard to migrate from. Longer term, probably yes in Europe. Shipping in LNG is expensive and I really doubt there are many European leaders who want to return to such a high reliance on Russian fossil fuel.
It sounds like China may start buying up that natural gas instead. I only see this as a plus, given that China still gets 2/3 of its electricity from coal. While sources like nuclear and renewables would be ideal, anything that gets them off coal is at least an improvement.
Limited transport capacity and gas power-plants make that unlikely I think. I rather expect that Russia and neighbouring central Asian countries will increase exports of energy rich materials such as cement to China, because for those the rail infrastructure already exists.
Yeah, that's why I see that as more of a long term shift. Russia shares a land border with China that it can build a pipeline to.
I am doubtful of that. The distance from the major Russian gas fields to the industrial centres in China is massive and China seems to rather prefer investing money into home grown tech like nuclear and renewables (and in the short term coal plants using coal mostly mined inside China).
Of course they will happily accept cheap products made with natural gas in exchange for their higher value exports, but Russia will not benefit much from that.
That's a good point, but it may cost a similar amount to build a pipeline to China. The fossil fuel fields are about equidistant between the borders with Europe and China. That still leaves a traversal through China, but that would be over land instead of expensive underwater construction.
China gets 55% of electricity from coal right now.
Those are the statistics for energy in general, not just electricity generation. Note how petroleum is a major component of the mix.
coal still ~~doesn't~~ does look like 2/3 in this chart
?
5000/7500=.66
What am I missing?
Coal is about 4.5 on the chart, but you're right it does look like 2/3. I just looked at 8000 at the top of the chart as the top number, my bad.