Fediverse

I feel your worries are justified. ActivityPub ecosystem isn't really maturing, it is languishing. There are still a whole bunch of good developments, but in our grassroots chaotic movement it is very hard for them to find broader adoption. Meanwhile complexity in our ecosystem grows and there's Protocol Decay as developers extend on-the-fly, in their codebase, and these are not shared or standardized.

Competing alternative technologies have analysed our weaknesses. They do not align with our values and principles for the most part, but they have ability to act. There's money behind them and huge rolodexes of people / companies with clout. On the Fediverse I witness a casual underestimation of what these initiatives may lead to, and an attitude of "we have already arrived". There's a good article that mentions the threat we face which I quoted in Are we ready for the threats to the Fediverse and decentralization movement? long ago.