this post was submitted on 20 Oct 2022
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I'm not sure whether to be nervous about this. It's clearly going to be an alternative to ActivityPub, Diaspora and so on, but I don't expect this new protocol to be integrated into the fediverse and it will likely be its own standalone network. I wonder if it will be able to catch on, and in that case what will it mean for the fediverse. I guess it will just continue to exist, but there would be no futher hope for mainstream adoption.
Do you think this protocol might be a good thing? I mean, would it be that bad if it replaced the fediverse? I'd like to hear some opinions on this. Weirdly, no mentions of blockchains or cryptos. I was expecting this to be part of Dorsey's "web5" vision (and I guess it will probably fit into it).
Now that I think about it, I guess that it would be possible for the admin of an AT protocol's instance to make their server compliant to ActivityPub as well? Dunno if that would make sense or even be convenient in any way. I also wonder whether the target of this protocol are the mainstream social network platforms (think of Twitter and TikTok federating over this).
No mention of blockchain etc. is good I guess. Lets wait and see.
Potentially Fedivserse Apps could implement multiple protocols to support side by side similar to how Hubzilla does it for zot, AP and diaspora.
I think if this would replace AP in some way or push AP into a corner with less users, then it's pretty bad. Even if the protocol were way better, I don't trust that they wouldn't do changes that aren't in the users interests.
I feel your worries are justified. ActivityPub ecosystem isn't really maturing, it is languishing. There are still a whole bunch of good developments, but in our grassroots chaotic movement it is very hard for them to find broader adoption. Meanwhile complexity in our ecosystem grows and there's Protocol Decay as developers extend on-the-fly, in their codebase, and these are not shared or standardized.
Competing alternative technologies have analysed our weaknesses. They do not align with our values and principles for the most part, but they have ability to act. There's money behind them and huge rolodexes of people / companies with clout. On the Fediverse I witness a casual underestimation of what these initiatives may lead to, and an attitude of "we have already arrived". There's a good article that mentions the threat we face which I quoted in Are we ready for the threats to the Fediverse and decentralization movement? long ago.