Intel is getting that number from somewhere. Perhaps there are active negotiations
this post was submitted on 16 Oct 2023
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there are ongoing back-channel talks to secure release for the israeli "women, children, elderly, and sick" hostages from hamas. hamas in return, wants all 43 palestinian women prisoners, and about 170 palestinian "minor" prisoners (read: children) from israel. other than that, all bets are off. if you're not one of those categories of individuals, then it's good fight, good night.
source: gershon baskin, hostage negotatior, and kind of an unofficial intermediary? (remember, there's no official diplo channels anyway)
I was hopeful for the hostages at first, but now I'm thinking that the IDF is actually going to kill them or get them killed in its attack on Gaza. If the Israelis really want to eradicate Hamas, why don't they just do it the way they carried out Operation Bayonet? The onslaught on Gaza just seems totally reckless and unnecessary, unless perhaps Israel already had designs to destroy it. Maybe Operation Al-Aqsa Flood just provided an opportunity to expedite Gaza's destruction.
It's sad to say, but those hostages didn't have much of a chance to begin with. The only positive thing that could happen is if Hamas gave them up. Of course, this would only delay the inevitable.
BTW, the number is now 199.
The Netanyahu government famously traded over one thousand Palestinian prisoners, including some lifers, for a single live IDF soldier. Based on that precedent, the lives of the hostages are extremely valuable to their captors. Therefore, I thought they had very good chances. I did not expect Israel to forsake the hostages instead.
We'll have to see how it plays out, but I doubt a prisoners exchange is in the offing.
I confirm thousands of Palestinians held hostage by Israel.
What about man