this post was submitted on 16 Oct 2023
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The Netanyahu government famously traded over one thousand Palestinian prisoners, including some lifers, for a single live IDF soldier. Based on that precedent, the lives of the hostages are extremely valuable to their captors. Therefore, I thought they had very good chances. I did not expect Israel to forsake the hostages instead.
We'll have to see how it plays out, but I doubt a prisoners exchange is in the offing.