this post was submitted on 16 Oct 2023
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It's sad to say, but those hostages didn't have much of a chance to begin with. The only positive thing that could happen is if Hamas gave them up. Of course, this would only delay the inevitable.
BTW, the number is now 199.
The Netanyahu government famously traded over one thousand Palestinian prisoners, including some lifers, for a single live IDF soldier. Based on that precedent, the lives of the hostages are extremely valuable to their captors. Therefore, I thought they had very good chances. I did not expect Israel to forsake the hostages instead.
We'll have to see how it plays out, but I doubt a prisoners exchange is in the offing.