this post was submitted on 28 Oct 2024
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Only the swing states count, the so called "battleground" states. If you live in a Alabama, your state is voting Trump. If you live in Massachusetts, your state is voting Kamala. (lemmy.dbzer0.com)
submitted 2 weeks ago by Melatonin@lemmy.dbzer0.com to c/politicaldiscussion@lemmy.world
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In every swing state, Trump has either closed the gap if he was behind, or broadened the lead if he was ahead.

I'm not saying it's over, or that there can't be surprises, but it looks like the Democrats have failed to run a campaign that the American public found compelling.

Saying the public is stupid or racist or whatever doesn't cover it. The bottom line is the Democrats haven't put forth a plan or made a case that they can deal quickly with the problems in America.

They have made announcements about student loan plans and forgiveness that were blocked, making them look unorganized and ineffective. They lost abortion rights. They never make progress on healthcare or taxes on the wealthy.

I want to win. I think we should fight surer battles, and avoid battles that will lose. Blaming Republicans for stopping us just makes them seem stronger than us. Let's stop making excuses and go on the offensive. No more, "Well don't vote for HIM, he's so dumb!"

It's hasn't worked.

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[–] Blackbeard@lemmy.world 5 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

Observers have noted that the GOP is flooding the airwaves with pro-Republican polls. It's the same thing they did in 2022. Some pollsters have even colluded directly with the GOP. So while your 538 model predictions aren't necessarily invalid, they're also not significantly different than they have been for weeks. The probability movement you're seeing is not nearly large enough to justify sweeping conclusions like the ones you're making in this post. I also find it highly unusual that just three days ago you were claiming you're exhausted, tired of the tension and absolutism, and ready for this all to be over. Why the sudden shift toward making definitive soapbox-type proclamations about what has or hasn't "worked" for the Democrats?

[–] Melatonin@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

I think I'm subject to a variety of emotions, and someday I feel a certain way, and other days another.

I want to win. I feel like we're just digging our heels in the "he's evil and if you vote for him you're evil" sand, letting the frustration of not communicating that message cause the exhaustion I'm referring to.

I hope we can begin to communicate a more populist message and winning elections. We are the party of good practice. We need to kick some ass.

[–] Blackbeard@lemmy.world 1 points 2 weeks ago

Just as the GOP is simultaneously airing pro-Israel ads in Pennsylvania and Pro-Palestine ads in Michigan, the party can and does craft messages specific to particular regions and constituencies. The one you're seeing is the one they've paid for you to see (or the one the sensationalist, hyperbolic media wants to crow about), and if you're a reliable Dem voter in a blue state they're very clearly not worried about telling a message that will resonate with you. Overall I'd recommend that you not hinge your sweeping conclusions about what does or doesn't work based on polls, which have a number of limitations.

[–] PhilipTheBucket@ponder.cat 4 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

I was all set to make a case that swing states are not a fixed arrangement of states that persists over every single election. Besides, a few non-swing states are polling within the margin of error currently.

Then I read your content. I wish you the best of luck with your rage bait. I hope your trolling goes really, really well.

Edit: non

[–] abff08f4813c@j4vcdedmiokf56h3ho4t62mlku.srv.us 3 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

This is inaccurate.

VoteHub still is projecting a Harris win, https://polls.votehub.com/

They're not the only ones, see also https://app.vantagedatahouse.com/analysis/TheBlowoutNoOneSeesComing-1

As for votes not mattering - exchange third party voters in swing states and offer a vote swap. Multiple safe state voters can swap with a single swing state voter, leading to a win for the third party (more votes so closer to 5% of nationwide popular vote that'd get them federal funding) and for Dems as well (more Harris votes in swing states).

Longer term, there's a plan afoot to fix this, https://www.vox.com/2020/1/14/21063591/modest-proposal-to-save-american-democracy-pack-the-union-harvard-law-review

Once that goes through we can do things like ranked choice voting and such as well as a direct nationwide popular vote for the Presidential election, which should solve this for good - and prevent the Dems from needing to cater to the most centralist voter - or moderate Republicans - to win.

Have hope!

[–] Melatonin@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

Good reads! The Vote Hub one still seems to sho an Electoral college win for Trump, but the VANTAGE HOUSE article was very exciting and made a lot of sense.

Of course, if he loses Trump will yell steal because of the polls, but hopefully he'll have plenty of time to think about it.

In jail!

[–] abff08f4813c@j4vcdedmiokf56h3ho4t62mlku.srv.us 1 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

Ahh shoot that VoteHub change must have been a recent update, I see the same now.

However, still reason to be optimistic in the short term from not only Vantage House but also Harris's own campaign team as per https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/28/us/politics/kamala-harris-donald-trump-2024-election.html (edit: archive https://archive.is/EwIkC ), and that's not even counting the long term plan.