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Frankly Labor has been taking advantage of the unions for a very long time, consistently kneecapping them, and has been doing so back to the Hawke / Keating years. This isn't a "compromise" anymore, because the right just keeps on taking and taking.
Problem is theres a hard to break narrative about Unions in the public consciousness. So anything that can be spun as a handout to the "Unions", ~in common parlance, workers~, is easy fodder for media beat ups, and the people consuming those articles to 'tut-tut' about those "lAzy ANd coRrUPt UniONS".
I'm sorry, this could have convinced me in the early oughties but I'm worn out now. There's a song and dance about how powerful the Murdoch media is but firstly that's no longer as true as it was, and most importantly, any time Labor has had the chance to shut them down, they haven't taken it. Literally the laws which got Labor offices raided were supported by Labor. At some point I'm going to stop believing the "small target" strategy is a real strategy and start to believe that this is what Labor actually is deep down. The toothless NACC, the active protection of the perpetrators of Robodebt, making a rod for their own backs, this is just who Labor is.
There are other unions, and if I can take a minor detour, some of them, eg teachers and nurses unions are majority women, and Labor walk over them, time and time again, whereas unions like CFMEU and TWU will strike. Health and Education are being gutted from a skills perspective, and the lesson they're being taught is that if you stand up like the other unions, you'll get your necks cut off. COVID came and "went", and Labor were in power for a good chunk of it, and they've not had the Unions or the workers backs. The majority of deaths happened / are happening during Labor in government. How many of those were Teachers? Nurses? With friends like these...
What even is the point any more? What is there to lose when unions are basically unable to stand up to their own? When Labor must shunt to the right of the coalition. Some people blame the right for the "right wing ratchet", but to some extent this has been engineered by the left to make the right look less favourable to their voters. I don't give a shit about Labor, I want some fucking solidarity.
I wonder how much chance the conservatives have of bagging some of their votes. I imagine most will go further left (Greens or Socialist Party) with preferences to Labour before the tories, though if enough leak through it could put Dutton in the Lodge.
The Coalition voted for the anti-CFMEU legislation too, but I guess people could preference Coalition above Labor just to hurt Labor in the 2PP figures.
I'm not sure it'd send any clearer a message, though, than just preferencing Greens and socialists above Labor but still putting Labor above Coalition. Seems like a Labor government would be more likely to repeal the laws than a Coalition one, under pressure from a bolstered Greens bloc.
but I guess people could preference Coalition above Labor just to hurt Labor in the 2PP figures.
I feel like reactionary swing voting like this would not be a common behaviour among union members. Like the whole point of joining a union is that you have some pretty entrenched beliefs about worker's rights, and one party here clearly has a worse record than the other in that regard. Like the thought occurred to me too, but I think you guys are right that people going further left to independents or The Greens, before ultimately preferencing Labor above Liberal, is the most likely change that could occur.
There's also the possibility of a split. If enough of the unions want to split, and it does look like it, it's possible that "left Labor" and "right Labor" split into two parties.