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Ohio election shock as Republican district shifts 20 points to Democrats (www.newsweek.com)

submitted 5 months ago by Five to c/ohio@midwest.social

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[–] Concave1142@lemmy.world 72 points 5 months ago (2 children)

Still a Republican win, just not by as much of a win as in the past.

Saved you a read.

[–] Ipodjockey@lemmy.world 11 points 5 months ago

Thanks

[–] blusterydayve26@midwest.social 5 points 5 months ago (1 children)

1 in every 10 republicans defected. That’s the news.

[–] CrayonMaster@midwest.social 1 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Wait 1 in 10? 20 points, even if it stared at 100% republican would be 1 in 5, more if the county was less then 100%

[–] blusterydayve26@midwest.social 2 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago)

Let’s assume a 50/50 split of 20 voters to make the math simple, 10 each of R and D.

If 1 in 10 R voters didn’t vote, that would be a 9:10 split, a 47% - 52% split, a 5% difference. If that voter then voted D, it would be a 9:11 split, a 47 - 57% split. To get that 20% split, you’d need a second R voter to change sides for an 8:12 split, which simplifies to 4:6, or a 40% - 60% split, which is a 20 point spread.

According to the math above, you can see that I was wrong by confusing the 20% population of R voters and the 10% of all voters.

[–] Lost_My_Mind@lemmy.world 17 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Ohioan here.......there was an election???

[–] hunleyd@lemmy.world 13 points 5 months ago

Special election, just for that county

[–] taanegl@beehaw.org 2 points 5 months ago

...so less nazis?

[–] autotldr@lemmings.world 1 points 5 months ago

This is the best summary I could come up with:

Republican state Senator Michael Rulli defeated Democrat Michael Kripchak to win the election held in eastern Ohio's 6th district on Tuesday to fill a vacancy left by Bill Johnson, who resigned in January after 13 years in Congress to become president of Youngstown State University.

Writing on X, formerly Twitter, political analyst Dave Wasserman attributed the close result to "abysmal" voter turnout.

Rulli and Kripchack will face off again in November's elections to compete for the full two-year term that will begin in January.

Speaking to Newsweek, Todd Landman, a professor of political science at Nottingham University in the U.K., said the results showed "the November race might be tighter than expected."

He said: "The Ohio special election was somewhat unusual since the seat has been vacant for some time and Rulli will have to run again in November, so will he be in the House for a short period during which he will need to campaign.

His election does increase the GOP hold on the House, but the advance of Democrats in Ohio means the November race may be tighter than expected in a strong Republican area."

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