this post was submitted on 30 Jun 2024
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Nope. That's Denying the Correlative. In the general election, there are two choices of statistical significance, supporting the DNC candidate, or supporting the RNC candidate. The Right is consistent in voting and wins when there is lower turnout for the DNC candidate (they are a minority). Third parties are spoilers, generally bleeding votes from the DNC candidate, making it more likely that the RNC candidate wins.
The Democratic primary ended in early June. That was the time to get Robin in. Now, it's too late for that and the choice is between Alfred, who should be retired, and the Joker, who should be retired and wants to replace democracy with a dictatorship, put anyone who was mean to him in prison, and expand ongoing genocides where he thinks that he can profit off of the real estate that used to belong to the murdered inhabitants.
Whoa, whoa, whoa... Who said anything about third-party?
The nominee isn't official until the convention, which means we still have time. And I ask: what would happen between then and November should Biden suffer a fatal medical emergency or his condition get so worse it's impossible to hide? Democrats would, of course, find a way to put someone else on the ticket.
So let's not pretend it's impossible or that the ship has sailed, for it has not.
If we actually grow a fucking backbone and realize that Biden:
... And let's acknowledge that we need to take a chance at an open convention or face a guaranteed loss.
Oh thank fuck.
I thought Biden was too old and too right-wing in 2020.
The only problems that I see with an open convention are candidate name recognition for those who pay no attention and the fact that GOP states have already been trying fuckery with the ballots.
You know the state ballot argument is a risk I hadn't considered. I honestly don't know enough to say how they could impact but it's worth further consideration.
I think there would be a media frenzy if you saw a headline like, "BREAKING NEWS: PRESIDENT BIDEN RESIGNS; ENDORSES GRETCHEN WHITMER." After which there would be viral social media and millions googling, "who is Whitmer?" Hopefully the conclusion they have is, "well she's a fresh face and she's younger than the other guy."
I agree with you there. The ballots and irrational voters are still my greatest concern. There were attempts to block Biden from the ballot in swing states because of the DNC convention being later than the state deadline. Look to any avenue open to electoral fraud being taken advantage of.
I think the third party is a valid thing to keep in mind. The Republicans are a bit more "ends justify the means", which translates to not letting themselves get distracted by "perfect is the enemy of the good". So they might even prefer a third party, but they are less likely to because they tend to be a bit more coldly strategic in their voting.
With respect to they can ignore the results of the primary vote... but that's exactly the sort of thing that people accussed them of when they put Hilary Clinton up as their candidate. So the right can tear into them for 'coronating' their candidate instead of doing an election.
While they can put up someone else, it would be a pretty desperate act, and it's hard to know which bad option is the worst of the options.
Fair points but I don't personally put much weight in the perception of what Republicans might say about a coronation for a couple reasons:
And this is the thing that I'm 100% convinced of by this point, personally. I see not just little hope, but no hope for Biden winning at this stage. As I tried my best to convey, Biden is performing significantly worse compared to 2020 and even Hillary's failed run. There's kind of a diminishing-returns argument to be made at this point that the vast electorate knows both Trump and Biden through & through. There's nothing new they're going to realize that they don't already know. So to move poll numbers now is next to impossible; and with that, the polls are going in the wrong direction for Biden, and the full effect of the debate hasn't even set in.
So what does one do? Well between riding out the inevitable crash, I think we take the chance with another way. But we won't do that by the looks of it. And I will bet large sums of money that Biden loses, unfortunately.