this post was submitted on 05 Jun 2024
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Interestingly, warfare also has the effect of:
causing houses to be abandoned, necessitating houses elsewhere while the abandoned ones likely get bombed
decreasing the number of future consumers, whose future footprint would depend on future behaviour patterns (hard to predict)
changing future land use patterns, either due to unexploded ordnance or straight out chemical contamination (there are places in France that are still off limits to economic activity, because World War I contaminated the soil with toxic chemicals), here in Estonia there are still forests from which you don't want trees in your sawmill because they contain shrapnel and bullets from World War II
I have the feeling that calculating the climate impact of actual war is a difficult job.
But they could calculate the tonnage of spent fuel and energy, that would be easier.