this post was submitted on 26 May 2024
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[–] FiniteBanjo@lemmy.today 10 points 5 months ago (3 children)

I wish this was cause for hope, but polls are still showing Trump neck and neck usually with a 2% lead over Biden. It's really going to come down to at least two, probably three, swing states. Given that some of them allow the EC vote to be split, there is even a possibility of a Tie.

[–] Leate_Wonceslace@lemmy.dbzer0.com 13 points 5 months ago (2 children)

The last couple of elections have shown the polls to be unreliable with a distinct bias favoring Republicans in appearance. Last I heard the popular theory was boomers are more likely to answer random calls and have time for a bunch of questions.

[–] SulaymanF@lemmy.world 5 points 5 months ago (1 children)

No. The polls do swing about 4% but it’s in a random direction in every election no matter what.

Almost no polls use landline random digit dialing exclusively anymore. Some call cell phones, some do online surveys or in person surveys, and some do focus groups.

Almost no polls use landline [...] Some call cell phones

Yes; that's entirely consistent with what I said. I wasn't even considering that some polls might be calling landlines when I made my comment.

[–] FiniteBanjo@lemmy.today 4 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Okay but the Trump "victory" of 2016 was shocking to most analysts.

[–] Leate_Wonceslace@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 5 months ago (1 children)

I'm talking about data within the past 4 years. 2016 was 8 years ago.

[–] FiniteBanjo@lemmy.today -1 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Right so the last 3 elections but not the election 4 ago specifically, okay.

[–] Leate_Wonceslace@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 5 months ago (1 children)
  1. The last 2 elections. If you're going to criticize me at least take the time to double-check your math.
[–] FiniteBanjo@lemmy.today -1 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Not even going to include midterm elections for Congress?

[–] Leate_Wonceslace@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Including the midterm election is how I got a grand total of 2.

1 presidential 4 years ago.

1 midterm 2 years ago.

1+1=2.

2 elections.

Get it yet?

Please consider taking the time to think instead of immediately jumping to a knee-jerk response.

[–] FiniteBanjo@lemmy.today 4 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Ah you right, you said 4 years but I kept going with the 8 years line of thinking.

It's late for me, so I get it. Sorry for the condescending tone I took at the end.

[–] HANN@sh.itjust.works 7 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Whatever happens will happen. We don't have control over the outcome only our efforts. Do what you can now to fight for what you believe. Stressing over polls doesn't help.

[–] FiniteBanjo@lemmy.today 2 points 5 months ago (1 children)

The best possible choices come from having access to all possible information.

[–] HANN@sh.itjust.works 3 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Sure, about the candidates and their stances. All the candidates manipulate the polls to make it look like their ahead and they are just used to pressure people to vote for one of the major parties. Vote for who you want in office. And if you are inclined then try to sway others. But this bandwagon appeal isn't the way.

[–] FiniteBanjo@lemmy.today -4 points 5 months ago (1 children)

How long does your little segway take to get to the part about the lizard people?

[–] HANN@sh.itjust.works 4 points 5 months ago (1 children)

There is no need for personal attacks. If you are implying I subscribe to conspiracy theories then you are not correct.

[–] FiniteBanjo@lemmy.today -2 points 5 months ago

No no, not conspiracy theories, just that the candidates respectively each own the media as a whole and that all polls are made up numbers.

[–] ashok36@lemmy.world 2 points 5 months ago (2 children)

If trump internal polling showed the same lead, there's no way he would show up to try to eat away a slice of the libertarians puny 2-3% of the vote.

I think the numbers look way worse for Trump than national pollsters show and I think their polling indicates Trump loses in a landslide if he's convicted in any of his cases.

[–] paddirn@lemmy.world 1 points 5 months ago

That it should require a conviction is still batshit insane. That's still way too damning of a good portion of the American public.

[–] FiniteBanjo@lemmy.today 0 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (1 children)

TBF, A or B Polling won't show any votes for C, but with how third party is more popular than in the past for both major parties this year in the wake of the Gaza Genocide it could negatively impact either candidate. That doesn't mean the polling is meaningless.

Trump is polling with a lead even as closing arguments are heard in his hush money trial today, and he has suspended his ~~insurrection~~ classified documents criminal trial indefinitely with help from a Judge Cannon that he appointed during his term.

We don't have to like it but we have to accept the facts here, Trump is popular and that threatens the future of US Democracy and NATO.

EDIT: His insurrection trials are held up over some other BS.

[–] ashok36@lemmy.world 1 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Slight correction: the insurrection case is held up by the Supreme Court sitting on their hands. The classified document case is held up by Cannon.

[–] FiniteBanjo@lemmy.today 1 points 5 months ago (1 children)

No, it had a date set for May 20th and Judge Cannon postponed it with no new date set. She made the decision on May 7th, less than 2 weeks before the trial.

Trump's criminal insurrection trial would have already started if Cannon didn't postpone it.

[–] ashok36@lemmy.world 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

No, the insurrection trial is held up by the scotus. It always would have been, with or without Cannon.

[–] FiniteBanjo@lemmy.today 1 points 5 months ago (1 children)

The Trial

Would Be

Happening Right Now

Unless Judge Cannon Postponed It

[–] ashok36@lemmy.world 1 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Cannon isn't in charge of the insurrection challenge.

[–] FiniteBanjo@lemmy.today 1 points 5 months ago

Ah you're right, it's his other other criminal trial, the classified documents hoarded at Mara Lago. It's kind of hard to keep track of his felonies at this rate.