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Fact Check: No, A New Study Does Not Show "Being Trans Is Just A Phase"
(www.erininthemorning.com)
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"A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence." -David Hume
Being transgender is a constant and persistent condition. Even for genderfluid people the "fluidity" needs to be repeatable. If a girl/woman suffering from cramps during her period thinks "I wish I was a boy/man so that I didn't need to suffer through this every month", she doesn't become trans because of it.
And "gender confusion" isn't a fair description. It's basically saying "they are wrong about what they're feeling". And you're not a telepath to know that
Yes. The whole point is to show that only a small minority of children who exhibit the hallmark 'sign' of being transgender, actually are.
That 2-3% of adults still feeling those same desires consistently, are obviously transgender.
No, you're imbuing meaning that isn't there, by conflating confusion with incorrectness. Being confused is not the same as being wrong. Confusion means uncertainty--not being sure of what's true about yourself is definitely not the same as being wrong (what are you even wrong about? If you're currently "confused", then you have not reached a conclusion yet, and you have to do that before you can be correct or incorrect).
A "hallmark sign" of having gender dysphoria is persistent identification with or insistence on being the opposite sex for at least a period of six months. And "not everyone who is questioning their gender ends up being trans" is not a statement anyone would argue with.
And no, confusion does imply being wrong. I rarely if ever saw it used as a short-hand for "not having an answer". It usually means either "fail to understand" (e.g. "I'm confused, is the birthday on the 5th or on the 15th?") or "made a mistake" (e.g. "Oh, sorry, I confused you for a friend of mine"). The term you're looking for is "questioning their gender" or "exploring their gender identity".