"probable" is a value judgement by you. If you have data that non-voting in past primaries has definitively driven policy change then we can talk probability, but I've never seen such a metric described.

I am ready to be educated on the historical record of this dynamic, then we can reasonably discuss this current event.

Otherwise guessing something happened as a result of non-voting is just speculation.

[–] the_post_of_tom_joad@sh.itjust.works 7 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago)

Hmm. Perhaps this is a misunderstanding after all. this is about a recent primary election where voters chose non-committed, not abstention from voting entirely