this post was submitted on 14 Jan 2024
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Isn't the current status quo that Taiwan is independent of China? From the Taiwan government's point of view, of course. It's pretty clear what China's POV WRT Taiwan is.
No and that's what annoys me about how people talk about Taiwan with no understanding of what's actually going on. Status quo is Taiwan and China are one, but Taiwan runs itself independently, just as Taiwan wants.
Isn't that a contradiction?
Kind of. It's basically an unfinished civil war. At this point for most Taiwanese, status quo simply means we have the freedom to do what we want and we can get advantages from China and the US for standing in the middle. Taiwanese people also know that China blusters and constantly give meaningless final warnings. No Taiwanese person believes China will ever attack.
My problem is, everytime we get into the news, there are economic consequences. Like TSMC losing business due to American sanctions. So my goal here is to try to get everyone to just leave us alone so we can live in the peace and prosperity of not being in the news.
An unfinished civil war in which the Republic of China lives on in a tiny island? Damn, must have been a real stalemate for the KMT and Communist Party.
For the record, I absolutely believe China would attack Taiwan, when they think they are ready. And you don't have to take my word for it: what of all those missiles Taiwan posseses? Are they pointed towards or away from the strait?
As for being left alone, the only reason Taiwan can live in peace and prosperity is because of its strategic semiconductor fabs and the publicity it generates. Yes, the publicity it generates puts us the forefront of global conversations and keeps Taiwan safe.
China doesn't care about TSMC, it never did, that's a US thing. China was always planning to out compete TSMC, that's what made in China 2025 was about. It's the US that panicked and tried to stop China from doing just that.
You could argue USA is trying to start a war by making China want TSMC, but recent events show China is intent on surpassing then still, regardless of what USA wants.
Unfinished civil war is an interesting take. Still, in every matter there is someone making the decisions, are there matters where the decisions are shared? Or some areas where they get made by Taiwan, while others where they get made by China?
TSMC has been a really smart move on the part of Taiwan; by out-competing everyone at a time when everyone was happy to outsource as much as possible, it's made Taiwan a critical asset to most of the world.
Still, that isn't likely to last for too long. Mainland China is already manufacturing semiconductors with older node technologies, and both the US and EU have been ramping up local foundries, so the protection TSMC brings Taiwan is likey to disappear rather sooner than later.
What your getting at is in my opinion, the core of the matter. It's really an issue of shared decisions. Each side is trying to position themselves to get the lion's share of them. The truth is, regardless of Taiwan and China call themselves one or separate, ultimately it will always be an issue of what decision each side gets to make. In many ways we see that playing out in the US/China relationship as well.
TSMC isn't really that important. Without TSMC and US interference, China would have just chugged along anyway. And we are seeing even with US interference, China's plan is to just chug along. It's the US that keeps bringing up TSMC because as you mentioned, it's a decision that's getting more and more out of US's ability to make decisions on.
Lmao no that's not the status quo of Taiwan. Or maybe I should ask you what happened to Hong Kong?
Hong Kong was returned on a lease? There's no lease in Taiwan and the Taiwanese voted how they wanted? Not sure your comparison here.
Now, if you really are Taiwanese, if China and Taiwan are one, do you really think China would let TSMC do as they please and not immediately takeover the company for SMIC? Or do you not remember what happened to Jack Ma? You think Taiwan can vote how it wants while still being part of China? Taiwan is part of China just as much as Ukraine is part of Russia.
By the way, last I checked in December when I visited my parents, rubber ducks and Winnie the Pooh aren't banned in Taiwan. I wonder about Hong Kong and its one country two systems ;)
Jack Ma is fine and is still a multi-billionaire. What about it? And rubber ducks and Winnie the Pooh are both still big sellers in China. Again, not sure your point.
That sounds like a distinction without a difference.
It walks independently, it talks independently, but "Taiwan and China are one." Uh huh.
Yup, which is exactly why the Taiwanese wants to keep the status quo and not get into conflict with China. We're already free, why stir the pot? Who cares what China says about who owns what. Now your getting it.