this post was submitted on 14 Jan 2024
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What your getting at is in my opinion, the core of the matter. It's really an issue of shared decisions. Each side is trying to position themselves to get the lion's share of them. The truth is, regardless of Taiwan and China call themselves one or separate, ultimately it will always be an issue of what decision each side gets to make. In many ways we see that playing out in the US/China relationship as well.
TSMC isn't really that important. Without TSMC and US interference, China would have just chugged along anyway. And we are seeing even with US interference, China's plan is to just chug along. It's the US that keeps bringing up TSMC because as you mentioned, it's a decision that's getting more and more out of US's ability to make decisions on.