this post was submitted on 15 Dec 2023
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Yeah I agree with all that, I just expected way worse outcome with just popping the trees in the ground in a rushed manner and then leaving for 2 years. In my area you would be lucky if a single tree made it from that. I’ve seen sites have much lower survival even with considerable follow up care.
At my old org we usually saw about 70-80% survival after two years with some level of care. Admittedly that’s in an urban area where a lot more things can go wrong, and most of the tree care was done by poorly trained property owners, so not exactly comparable to your type of project.
At least in my area precipitation is not predictable enough to rely on that way. We try to time our plantings with the rainy season but predicting which year will be wetter if dryer than average is more or less impossible. Last year was expected to be dry but it was very wet. This year is projected to be wet but so far has been dry. Long range models aren’t good enough to stake your project success on.
Plus, as you say, it would be difficult to maintain professional staff around working only once every few years. Such a system would be totally lacking in expertise and would also create much inferior working conditions. If the rains don’t come, you need to irrigate more. That’s just how it is and I don’t see a way around it.
I’m not sure I understand the breakdown of numbers there. Are you counting replants in your survival there? I would not include those because they are of a different age cohort unless planted shortly after the original trees. My number doesn’t include replacements.