this post was submitted on 23 Nov 2023
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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

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[โ€“] MrMakabar 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

The problem Biden has is that most US allies do not have large local oil production. Even thou the US is the largest producer in the world, the next ones are Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and China. Then next is Brazil, which is not as bad as the others for sue, but not exactly an ally of the US. Then it continues with the UAE, Iran and Kuwai. Most of them are also in OPEC+, which is cutting production right now.

So those allies mainly Europe and the ones in Asia, like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all purchase a lot of oil from the Middle East, since the sanctions on Russia started due to the war in Ukraine. That however is a huge problem as the US wants to focus on China, rather then another war in the Middle East. At the same time reducing the oil price weakens all countries in that region, which is great news for the US, besides local voters like it as well.

So thats why you see the US trying to reduce local oil consumption with the inflation reduction act by making more evs, while increasing oil production to not have to fight a war in the Middle East. The EU did ban fossil fuel car sale by 2035 for the same reason. The good part is, if this works a war in the Middle East, could massivly disrupt the flow of oil from the region, without the US feeling the need to intervene. Pretty much all leaders in the region are downright evil, so potentially great news.