this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
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Hasn't it been stated it's not a coup?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60947877
I don't know what the difference between that and a march for justice are though.
People attempting coups have historically called them noncoups.
Also, if Prigozhin wins, Putin will probably end up being "killed by traitors", but Prigozhin will vow to avenge him and bring all traitors to justice.
Historically, there's also been a lot of nincomcoups that ended rather abruptly.
The other historical trend seems to be finding out who funded or influenced it after the attempt. I'm curious to see how it pans out
It's down to branding. Prigozhin is framing this as a fight against the military leaders who have deceived Putin and caused him to make mistakes, but he does not blame Putin himself and is leaving room for Putin to change sides.
That framing aside, this is still a coup with the goal of overthrowing gov't leadership by force.
It's all word play, total information control and fog of war; by not attacking Putin directly, they avoid upsetting the Russians that still have total confidence in Putin and maintain that possibility that Wagner could still end up in alliance with Putin anyway, like with Chechens.
Attacking the military talking-heads however, doesn't risk anything, most Russians don't really trust the entire regime anyway, just Putin.
Once Wagner have more and more control of Russia, they can just go after Putin.
This is all speculation on my part tho.
"This is not a coup" is roughly akin to "I'm not a Nazi" ... you've brought up something outside daily norms to such an extent that you're engaging in framing.
I get that. What I'm wondering if there have been any further developments or changes to that. Even hints to the contrary.
If things did escelate or spiral and there was no word as to directions or aspirations I feel like it could be a massive confusing fumble
It doesn't even really matter what Prigozhin intended at this point. Putin has made it clear he's treating this as a coup attempt, so Prigozhin has to either pull off a successful coup or die.
Speculation is pointless; all one can do is keep up via nonsensationalized channels.
This is going to be one of those days I miss being in a newsroom.
If it's not a coup, it's going to get Prigizhin killed and Wagner disbanded. So I can't see it as much of anything else.
I doubt Wagner will be disbanded, they'll be absorbed or forced right into the military.