this post was submitted on 19 Jun 2023
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I don't think so. The most probable result is Meta (and maybe Google, Amazon, etc) running the mainstream instances, and sn alt-fediverse of smaller, tech-savy instances that defederate them. Most people will have only an account in the Meta-fediverse, and only a minority in the alt-fediverse or in both. Similar to most people now having a WhatsApp account, and only a few using Telegram or Signal.
The largest instances have either already announced their intent to block Facebook or stated that they are monitoring the situation and will react quickly and decisively should anything untoward happen. There is no Fediverse without federated third parties. All Facebook could show in that case was... Literally their own walled garden. How is that different to them not even implenting activitypub in the first place? It isn't. Their only power is to ask if they can participate. Literally no one is going to waste a minute on any efforts of theirs that could even remotely be perceived as taking control.