this post was submitted on 12 Sep 2023
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Slightly OT but I think Ford's chance to beat Tesla has flown out the window. Ford is partially withdrawing from Europe - it might linger on selling commercial vans & tractors but as a consumer brand they're nearly gone. GM has pulled out of Europe (and China). GM sold it's European Opel operation to Stellantis. There is talk of GM trying to enter Europe with EVs but we'll see.
Anyway the point is they both kind of blew it and are retreating to their domestic market, probably hoping they can cling on there, weather the storm and come back later. I think Tesla has taken over as the dominant auto maker and it's unlikely to change unless Elon does something spectacularly dumb or drops dead.
Tesla doesn't even have the production capacity to satisfy domestic markets. By 2025 Tesla plans to up their capacity to 2 Million cars a year, meanwhile Ford alone should be puming out around that amount of vehicles, and they are more affordable. And that doesn't even bring in GM or any other car company.
Unless they change their plans and grow production dramatically, Teslas doesn't have the capacity. They are only 10% of the global market and most of their competitors have just gotten started. And China is rapidly starting to export cars to the EU, to the point where they are considering raising tariffs even higher.
By 2030, China is projected to be a third of the global market. So if we are talking internationally I think Tesla needs to worry about companies like BYD, NIO, GAC, etc. I mean BYD is set to beat Tesla in production and sales very soon already.
This is gilding the lily. Ford and GM know they are screwed and are adopting a defensive posture in the hopes of recovery. Maybe they perceive retreat as a way to moneyball their resources - wait for the EU carnage to subside and step back in. But thinking that this is coming from a position of strength though is a nonsense. Ford and GM are are fucked in Europe, and China and they're getting out. I haven't seen any sign the same applies to Tesla.
I guess my point is more about Tesla and less about GM and Ford, come 2025 and beyond. Tesla doesn't have the production capacity, nor do they seem to have the plans to ramp up capacity in the near future to have any chance to have a huge share of the global EV market. Chinese companies are ramping up faster, VW also has a huge planned production that I am sure will help satisfy European demand.
Unless Tesla makes plans to ramp up way faster than they have currently stated, their best bet would be to make better cars and just compete in the high end premium market. But that would take Musk to admit that his cars aren't up to par to premium cars to make the necessary changes to quality to compete. I don't see that happening.