this post was submitted on 13 Jun 2023
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Politics

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Article from a few weeks ago, but now that G. Elliott Morris is taking over without Nate's models, I'm curious what lemmy's think about political polling analysis from FiveThirtyEight?

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[โ€“] Mantipath@sh.itjust.works 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Weird take.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/

538 was one of the few groups saying that Trump had a decent chance. They were widely mocked for it. Anybody who believed 538 should have been motivated to get out the vote for Clinton.

And they turned out to be right.

How is that "Trump beat Clinton because of 538"?

Maybe I misremembered 538 for another popular poll at the time.