this post was submitted on 13 Jun 2023
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Politics
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That's not good. Specifically, I believe Trump beat Clinton because of 538.
That's not really accurate. The polls were going back and forth for over a month leading up to the election, and the FBI announce they were re-opening the case into Clinton's emails 3 days before voting day. The polls just didn't have the time to reflect that change.
Weird take.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/
538 was one of the few groups saying that Trump had a decent chance. They were widely mocked for it. Anybody who believed 538 should have been motivated to get out the vote for Clinton.
And they turned out to be right.
How is that "Trump beat Clinton because of 538"?
Maybe I misremembered 538 for another popular poll at the time.
Was it 538, or just the utter idiocy of the average American? Just because the polls say he has a 33% chance of winning, doesn't meang stay home, it means the opposite.
Thems worse odds than Russian roulette.