this post was submitted on 27 Jul 2023
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I think you’re underestimating the impact here. It obviously won’t replace all of the jobs in these fields, but even shortening or eliminating enough tasks will have impacts on employment levels. If fewer people can do the same amount of work, some of those people will be laid off.
Hasn't this been the case always? One excavator operator can dig a hole for house foundation way faster than 10 guys with shovels; one truck driver can deliver more cargo than a caravan of horse-drawn carriages; one electronic computer can solve math problems way faster than a room full of humans doing paper-and-pencil calculations; e-mails are faster and can carry way more data than telegraph. AI is just the next step on this path. AI is not the problem, our neoliberal capitalist economic system that seeks unlimited growth of profit is.
I largely agree that the system is the problem and not AI. But we live in that system and will need to prepare for the impacts that will unfold within it.
Maybe my phrasing wasn't clear, but the areas where I said I didn't see it changing the trajectory much for the job, I meant that (as I mentioned with writers) the prospects already had lots and lots of competition and a very small percentage of people who'd like to do the job actually can make a living doing it. The numbers are already close to winning the lottery, I just don't see AI making it like wining the powerball (multi state lottery) a substantive difference to people trying to "make it" in that field. If I'm already at 1 in 10 million, I don't see that my decision making is going to be that affected if AI makes it 1 in 20 million. I don't think people make decisions in that way.
And for government interventions - do we subsidize writers now? If not, I just don't see it politically, economically, or even philosophically to make sense to do so because of AI.