this post was submitted on 25 Jul 2023
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TL;DR: New statistical model suggests that the AMOC (including gulf stream) could collapse to the much slower pattern by 2025 to 2095. This is a century earlier than previous predictions and the researchers were concerned. There is some questions on the accuracy of the model used, and that needs more research.
Personally I don't think we should wait for further testing to vet the model before acting. Try to do better now.
It's kind of important whether it's 2095 (prepare for it, set up nuclear, reduce carbon emissions) or 2025 (fuck global warming, we need fuel and we need it now, the more carbon emitted the better).
Local cooling still global warming overall.
The collapse of the current in the model is a direct result of global warming. The solution is to act like climate change is an emergency because it is.
That's true if it's closer to 2095. If it's closer to 2025, there's fuck all we can do to stop it, and so we need to do what's best to survive it, which is not the same as what's best to prevent it.
Scientists shouldn’t talk about the chances of not if something is sure enough. Politicians will latch onto that. Just make broad statements and go. Just like with the movie ‘Don’t look up’.
Not really - the AMOC collaps between 2025 and 2095 was already in a 2005 paper. Nothing really "new", IMHO.