this post was submitted on 02 Aug 2024
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The idea isn't crazy, depending on what sport you have as a frame of reference.
I mean, I'd have a chance to win a single hole against a pro golfer with a lucky shot. I'd have a chance to score a single hit against a major-league pitcher. I'd have a decent chance to at least sink a single ball against a professional pool player. I'd surely capture a few pieces in a game of chess against Magnus Carlsen (though not any he didn't intend to lose, so bad example). I might even be able to Forrest-Gump my way to a touchdown against a pro football team if someone sent me a perfect pass.
Of course I'd have no chance to win an entire game in any of those cases, but in many sports, a competent amateur has a chance to at least get a point against a pro.
That said, I've seen pro table tennis and I know for sure I'm not getting a point unless they are struck by well-timed lightning. We are not playing the same game. It'd be like going to a motorcycle rally with my bicycle.
That's because golf and pool aren't head-to-head sports (per se); the other golfer(s) or pool player can't interfere with your ball as you hit it.
All the others, you're honestly kidding yourself. You would not hit a 95mph 'cutter' fastball off a professional pitcher, or run a touchdown against a pro football team.
Excellent point! That's also basically the scenario I mentioned with football and baseball. In football, you'd need to have a clear shot and be a good runner (like in Forrest Gump). Unlikely, but within the realm of possibility for an athletic non-football-player. In baseball, once the ball is in the air it's anyone's game. Anyone who can swing a bat has a chance to get a lucky hit. Not a good chance, but a chance. Especially a professional athlete from a different sport. I mean, we kind of saw that when Michael Jordan played baseball. He had a very respectable batting average...for a basketball player. :)
If you put me in the majors, I'd bet I could manage a .001 batting average!
I honestly think you don’t understand the physics of it. You’d have no chance with football, because you’d have coverage the entire time and would not be able to shake it. I know that and I haven’t watched football in 15 years. And baseball, if you’re up against a pro player in a pro game, you’re using a wooden bat and there’s no way in hell you’re getting that around with enough force in the amount of time it takes the ball to travel from the pitcher’s mound to home plate. They start swinging before the ball leaves the pitcher’s hand and they still barely hit it. You might touch the ball with the bat, but you are never in a million years making it to a base.
If you can accept the possibility of making contact, you should be able to accept the possibility of a hit. The difference between a hit and a foul is, like, centimeters or milliseconds. Why do you think a difference of that size is literally impossible?
We're taking about a chance, so it's fair to ignore the worst-case scenario and consider the best-case scenario. Forget about 100mph heat; that's the exception even in pro play. And we're not going for consistency, so you can forget about reaction time. Feel free to start swinging way earlier than a real pro would. Close your eyes and pray to your deity of choice. There's a chance.
A pitcher does not respond to small-scale movements of the hitter once the wind-up begins, so this is not a 100% head-to-head skill issue. There is plenty of time for a reasonably-athletic layman to get the bat through the strike zone in a time frame that overlaps with the range of probability of a pitch. Not with any consistency, because that would require precise reaction and control that are not possible without a ton of experience. But again, we're not talking about consistency. We're talking about a single stroke of luck. A single hit is within the realm of luck. Skill simply tightens up that probability distribution in your favor.
As for football, yeah, I concede your point. The the kind of play I'm describing happens every season, but you're absolutely right that a layman wouldn't actually be able to get in position to make that catch in the first place. My scenario was assuming a miracle position for a good runner to take off, which puts it outside the range of a single stroke of luck. My bad.
A hit is not a run. Just because you made contact with the ball does not mean you’re going to make it around the bases, or even at a minimum get the person on third into home. Not only are wooden bats heavy, but they transfer a lot less force than an aluminum bat. A regular person would have no chance of hitting it even to outfield, much less any sort of scoring position.
Whether you're able to take a point depends on how much of the game/sport depends on chance. At one end of the spectrum, chess is minimal percentage dependent on chance; you're never beating Carlsen in a match (though nor is 99.9999% of the population!), but on the other (e.g. poker) there's a big element of luck, and the skill element is knowing how to play to your best odds.
Let's be real, you're also never beating a pro poker player.
You could well beat a pro poker player in a hand -- point is you're never beating them over the course of a game.
Reminds me of a card game my brother taught me once. I managed to take two games off him after dozens. He was using me to test some decks he was deciding between taking to a world championship, that he won 4th in. It's technically possible to win a game, but there's practically a 0% chance I'd have won a match.