Economics

“The need is infrastructure,” he said. “You may produce all this light sweet crude oil in Texas. But if you don’t have pipelines to the nation’s refineries to deliver it, how are you going to be able to utilize it?”

So importing foreign crude oil is cheaper. Meanwhile, De Haan said, increasing renewable energy demand is making investments in fossil fuels riskier.

So we buy and refine the cheaper stuff, and we sell our more expensive stuff to places that can’t do that. There’s one more discount: The majority of our oil comes from our closest neighbor.

I've posted this in response to Trump's promise to "drill, baby, drill" as well as for all the people who have fuel prices as one of their primary concerns.

The reason gas prices are high is because it doesn't make fiscal sense for corporations to invest in the infrastructure to refine locally sourced crude oil. And, as it seems, refining local crude may actually increase prices at the pumps.

From everything I've read (please share anything that's contradictory), it seems like Trump's agenda is going to increase the cost of everything. For the number of people who voted based on 'the economy', I wish we had had more transparent discussions about the impact of his plans. I'm already scared for whomever has to inherit this pending catastrophe.

Not completely sure I'm doing it right, but a 2:1 safe state for swing state swap seems like a bad deal. Here's my reasoning:

• In New Jersey, as an example of a safe state for Harris, Fivethirtyeight has Harris winning in 993 out of 1000 simulated elections. Assuming the same turnout as 2020 of 4,549,457 votes, there's a 0.500546 chance, on average, that a NJ voter will vote for Harris. I figured that out using the BINOM.DIST.RANGE function and the Goal Seek tool in Excel.
• In Michigan, with a turnout of 5,539,302 voters in 2020, Harris wins in only 605 out of 1000 simulations. Using the same tools above, if you randomly picked any Michigan voter, there's a 0.500059 chance that he or she is voting for Harris.
• Using the BINOMDIST function with the assumed turnouts and the chances we determined that voters in each of the above states would go for Harris, there's a 3.25986e-4 chance that Michigan is decided by a single vote. Likewise, there's a 2.47681e-5 chance for the same in NJ. Based on the probability that it could shift electoral college votes, a Michigan ballot is distinctly more powerful than an NJ one.
• If you could could reliably convince one more person to vote like you in NJ, your chances of affecting the NJ outcome only increase to 2.48222e-5.
• For an NJ voter to match their chances of affecting the Michigan outcome, they would have to command about 1,925 votes besides their own. In other words, there's an almost equal chance of a single vote Harris victory in MI as a 1,926 vote victory in NJ.
• Therefore, if a Michigan voter values their power, they should not trade their vote for anything less than 1,926 New Jersey votes. The rate should actually be greater to account for welching and Michigan having one more electoral vote than NJ.

Am I missing something?

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/22156613

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/22156612

Matt Sledge
November 4 2024, 1:56 p.m.#

ahead of Germany and Japan. Using PPP GDP measure.

a more detailed, but biased, article https://www.lewrockwell.com/2024/11/no_author/russian-economy-zooms-ahead-outpaces-us-and-eu-growth/

There is more likely to be a collapse on the west from supporting a Ukraine war. There is zero resonance of "NATO is a purely defensive alliance" propaganda meant to be a friend to the world or to Russia inside of Russia. It is fully understood as an existential threat in Russia, while it is a casual inconvenience to those who trust western media in the west. A deep concern for the world/west is that Russia's extreme growth in military production means that we will soon be asked to boost competing military production and compromise our own sustainability and leisure.

Re-publishing this, because I rewrote the post a bit.

Target audience is people who like to talk about "negative externalities" and the need to "internalize" them.

Although at this point, it might make strategic sense to use the language of neoclassical economists to push for (e.g.) a carbon tax, we should recognize the fundamental flaws in the underlying world view.

https://mishathings.org/posts/internalize-this-environmental-economics/

#CarbonTax #EnvironmentalJustice #ClimateDiary @economics

In article's first chart, it lists China as competitive this year in robotics and machine tools. It is far more appropriate to call it a global leader in these categories, as that is where all of the manufacturing customers are.

While Musk is referring to the magical $2T+ in budget cuts to US budget he will sail through magical congressional unanimity...

Hardship has to include the extreme difficulty in reindustrializing the US in an environment where labour is deported, and reciprocal tariffs means serving a local declining market where fewer people have money left over if they are overpaying for imported goods.

Recessions not only reduce tax revenue, they also are typically responded to by significant government investment to pull out of recession, and the US is nearly maxed out already.

Offshore wind output surged 37% year on year, hydropower generation grew 21%, solar was up 20%, and onshore wind 6%. On the other hand, coal-fired generation fell 7% and gas output dropped 24%

double digit declines in coal and NG use were also present every earlier month of this year. Europe has by far achieved the biggest emission reductions in the world this year. 16% point market share drop for fossil fuels electricity since just 2023.

This is the most comprehensive reporting on Chinese emissions released regularly. There is still an expectation/possibility that China's emissions will be lower than 2023, and then a near certainty that the peak will be 2023 or 2024.

Some notes:

China is only committed to peaking by 2030. Ministry doesn't view an early peak as a new goal.

7.8% electricity demand growth in Q3 was huge, and so slight emission increase from power sector. Oil (EVs and LNG truck success), Steel and Cement (construction downturn) emissions were down to make overall emissions flat.

A worrying national/energy security measure is China is expanding its ability to make oil and gas chemicals from coal instead.

Much better article than just the rise of central bank rates to 21%.

It's possible to read between the lines for how the oligarchs are complaining the economy is ruined, vs. high wages for ordinary people making ordinary people better off and happy.

This is a good expectation of what a UBI/Freedom dividends economy would look like when people have the freedom to say no to work offers because they have better options. Except that instead of tying up people into military defense of nation, they can be training for better opportunities than what is currently offered.

cross-posted from: https://pixelfed.crimedad.work/p/crimedad/755906400830131681

#Shrinkflation

Brought my daughter to a trunk-or-treat and got this so so fun sized pack of peanut M&M's. More of a trick than a treat really.

#Halloween #candy #TrickOrTreat

@crosspost@lemmy.crimedad.work

Putting Jurisprudence Back into Economics

https://www.exploring-economics.org/en/discover/putting-jurisprudence-back-into-economics/

Economics as it has been defined in the 20th century has largely ignored questions of jurisprudence, property rights, contracts and legal structure of economic institutions. Bringing jurisprudence considerations back into economics leads to radically different conclusions

@economics

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/21085333

I’ve known this for a while thanks to the Money & Macro YouTube channel: How Commercial Banks Really Create Money (the Money Multiplier is a MYTH)

In recent speeches, Donald Trump reiterated his intention to halt trade ties with China. The former president's emphatically harsh rhetoric is prompting the White House to demonstrate its willingness to strengthen anti-China measures. As usual, the Chinese remain silent and pretend that nothing is happening.

During his election campaign, the Republican leader assured that he would impose customs duties of 60% on Chinese goods if elected president. According to Trump, the purpose of these measures is to "bring companies back to the United States". In addition, the ex-president hinted at the need for greater control over investment flows between the two countries.

Many experts believe that such steps will actually mean the severance of economic relations with the People's Republic of China, though with certain reservations. Already, a significant part of Chinese products enters the USA through third countries. They come mainly from Southeast Asia and Mexico, with the latter displacing the PRC as the leading importer of goods to the United States in 2023. A multiple increase in tariffs will lead to a complete overhaul of supply chains between the two largest economies. The additional costs, analysts warn, will be borne by American consumers.

Against this background, the local media began publishing about the administration's plans to announce measures to limit financial transactions with Beijing in the near future. The reason cited is the supposedly increased risks of "sensitive" personal data falling into the hands of the Communist Party of China. It should be noted that restrictions against Chinese electric cars are being worked out under the same pretext.

As expected, the presidential election campaign is becoming a key factor influencing the development of US-China ties. In this context, the Democrats are facing a challenging task. On the one hand, the White House is interested in maintaining the current dynamics of US-China contacts. Among other things, this is due to the need to demonstrate the effectiveness of the "responsible competition" with Beijing. On the other hand, Donald Trump's scathing statements are resonating with voters, pushing the administration to take stronger measures against the Public Republic of China, primarily protectionist ones.

Of course, the Chinese are closely monitoring the US election campaign and are trying not to comment on Trump's attacks against them.

Discount retailer says low-income households feel more ‘financially constrained’ than six months ago

Paywall removed: https://archive.is/SLMtR