Not an "unpopular" opinion. This is straight up stupidity.
this post was submitted on 24 Apr 2024
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Unpopular Opinion
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Who said unpopular opinions were smart?
Very true.
Depends on the context.
If you said vaccines don't cause autism in a room full of dumbasses, you'd have a smart but unpopular ~~opinion~~ fact.
My respect for the opinion, but the facts... well, you got them all wrong.
You want to read about the levels of autonomy. For example: https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update
Tesla is stuck on level 2, and for years already (regardless how many times they renamed their system), and they are not expected to reach level 3 anytime soon.
Others have level 4 vehicles running driverless in some restricted environments, and Mercedes has recently started selling level 3 vehicles to private users.
https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/27/23572942/mercedes-drive-pilot-level-3-approved-nevada
Restricted environments. If Tesla use that as their criteria they’d meet that.
Fsd is cool. I’ve been using it for years but it either works like a dream or tries to kill you.
It’s not prime time but overall it’s more advanced than anyone else since it doesn’t use pre mapped paths.
Mercedes level 3 is highly conditional unlike Tesla.
The point being Tesla has an advanced system but ford would be an idiot it licensing it. Every time I think Tesla cracked the code, it tries to murder me.
I think Tesla should have kept the radars.
Restricted environments. If Tesla use that as their criteria they’d meet that.
They are not even trying.
They won't let you turn your hands off the wheel, not even in such restricted situations. They don't want to.
Teslas marketing department get bored with Reddit or what?
Ad hominem isn't an argument to the contrary
Ah but you see, I have no desire whatsoever to argue with Tesla's marketing department. But posting an advertisement for whatever they are lying about this week on Unpopular Opinion is just shilling and deserves to be called out.
Literally today a Tesla on autodrive killed a person on a motorcycle.
The reason no one else offers it is because it's half baked, unfinished, permanently beta, and not safe to be on real roads.
Driving has 10,000 edge cases and every one needs to be tested and 100% perfect, and because of that self driving is a long ways away. Real car manufacturers know that, and know what Tesla is actually selling - a gimmick.
Driving has 10,000 edge cases and every one needs to be tested and 100% perfect, and because of that self driving is a long ways away.
This is the 'devil is in the details', as to why autodriving isn't there yet.
Having the code for every one of those edge cases in the office/lab via simulation has got to be a nightmare, and no way to be complete before releasing.
exactly. Anyone who has ever coded anything professionally knows how intense a problem like this is. There's a reason that no one, not even Google, Microsoft, or Apple have successfully done it. They may still be researching, but to think it's a simple problem that can be handwaved away with AI and models is incredibly naiive.
AI is just probability. This picture is probably a dog, with over 90% accuracy. Which is great when you're classifying cats and dogs - but we're doing real time live determinations of things while driving, and that's a completely different problem set. Now we need AI to predict with a much higher probability that there is a person in the street, or the street is dividing, or there is a construction zone, or the car ahead is starting to slow down, or.... 10,000 other edge cases.
I still don't understand how self driving vehicles hit things. Job #1 is don't hit things. If they can just do that they will be much better than human drivers.
I still don’t understand how self driving vehicles hit things.
Usually they misidentify the boundaries of the road, or objects moving on and off of the road.
no other manufacturer offers equally capable self-driving system and this is unlikely to change anytime soon
lol
It's not wrong, other systems work.
Post reported for trolling/rage-baiting. Leaving it up for now, but will be watching it.
It’s a good thing because it’s literally saving human lives.
Oh, good. I guess all those articles about people getting killed were wrong.
Do you know how many traffic fatalities there are every day in the United States? FSD-related fatalities are rare, but they make the news every time. Someone dies roughly every 15min from a traffic accident, meaning about 10 people died in a car accident since you wrote this post.
I don't know about the efficacy of FSD or whatever, but many, many more people are killed by human driven cars than self-driving vehicles. Self-driving vehicles don't need to be perfect, they simply need to be better than humans, and, unfortunately, that's not a very high bar to clear.
I'm ambivalent about Tesla. I really, really dislike Musk. But I actually have a tremendous amount of respect for the ENGINEERS at Tesla that are making some of the safest cars on the road based on crash testing--including ICE vehicles. There's a lot of smart, hard-working people being underpaid and overworked to produce safe electric vehicles. I think they deserve praise.
FSD-related fatalities are rare, but they make the news every time.
And rightly so.
Normal traffic accidents are single events, but these are systematic failures. Programmed kills that can be repeated an infinite number of times.
I don’t know about the efficacy of FSD or whatever, but many, many more people are killed by human driven cars than self-driving vehicles.
"Self-driving" vehicles are so new to the market that this is a preposterous argument. They're surely less than 1% of the cars on the road and I'm being generous with that estimate.
I mean, again, I don't care about this argument that much, but per mile driven, Tesla cars are significantly safer when automated than when not. And even when not utilizing FSD, the other safety controls built into the vehicles make them safer for other drivers.
You can review the data yourself here: https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport
I'm not going to sit here and pump Tesla, because who cares. But they're safe cars and make roads safer. Humans suck at driving. Oh look, someone died in a human-caused accident in the time it took me to write this post. You just didn't hear about it because it was human caused.
Hate on whatever you want, I don't really care. But automated driving will save a lot of lives.
Some of the things you can see FED doing in videos are completely ridiculous. It’s in no way safer than a typical driver. Blow stop signs, stop suddenly, pulls out and stops in intersections, ignores speed limits, can’t handle construction, can’t deal with fog, rain or snow properly.
Yeah, it would in theory be great.
The problem is, Tesla's tech simply doesn't work for this, despite Elon's insistence otherwise.
Ford’s Blue Cruise is pretty dang good, I have a hard time imagining Tesla is doing a better job. Tesla also has major problems with its leadership, and that culture inevitably flows down to development teams, so I definitely don’t trust their software.
They're really different systems. Blue cruise is for highway use only on selected roads where as FSD can navigate in cities, residential areas, parking lots, around pedestrians and even on unmapped roads. While blue cruise may be very good at doing this one thing, FSD is much more capable all-around. I highly recommend checking out the video I linked above incase you're not up to date with it.
I'm one of the first people to shit on Tesla, but hasn't the company's philosophy always been that they are a software company that makes cars? I could see it happening.
To add on to the OP, I'd even argue that Tesla may stop making cars entirely and just move on to contracting out tech and software for major automakers. Looking at all the sales headaches the company's been facing these past few years, I wouldn't be surprised to see them pivot to just operating behind the scenes and let the established players deal with the user distribution side of things.
stop making cars entirely and just move on to contracting for major automakers.
I have heard that about Google.
I have heard that about Apple.
I have heard that about Mobileye...
In any case, if it shall work, it requires a boss who can think straight and does not try to be the whole carmaker's boss.
Oh yeah, I don't think it would happen anytime soon but what future does Tesla have otherwise? Elon's already tainted the brand for the company's most likely buyers and sales figures show it. Not many people want a Tesla car, but their tech is still desirable for many people (including other automakers who don't want to spend the resources on R&D that Tesla's already done
but what future does Tesla have otherwise?
Very good question.
I don't have any facts to support my guess, but if you want to hear my guess: they will go down more or less the same drain as Ex-Twitter.
Perhaps. The main problem I see with that prediction is that X is privately owned whereas Tesla is publicly traded. Elon can run X however stupidly he wants (some exceptions apply), but Tesla has a legal obligation to conduct business in good faith, and shareholders have shown before that they will stand against Elon when his ideas seem to go against this.
If I try to think from the point of view of that narcissistic CEO:
He is quite able to present visions to (=manipulate) large masses of users, and as well to that bunch of awful-pain-in-the-ass shareholders.
Well, some are haters, and will always be. So what. Some day they are going to adapt. They just have to.
The outcome of it:
He is not going to behave differently just because there are public shareholders. Whether or not they are able to make things different, I don't know.