Collapse

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This is the place for discussing the potential collapse of modern civilization and the environment.

Collapse, in this context, refers to the significant loss of an established level or complexity towards a much simpler state. It can occur differently within many areas, orderly or chaotically, and be willing or unwilling. It does not necessarily imply human extinction or a singular, global event. Although, the longer the duration, the more it resembles a ‘decline’ instead of collapse.

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#271: “Peak almost everything”, part one (surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com)

submitted 8 months ago by eleitl@lemmy.ml to c/collapse@lemmy.ml

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[–] Krauerking@lemy.lol 1 points 8 months ago (1 children)

There is some deeply disturbing prediction math going on there using extremely short points of data to infer future trends.

Some of those lines just look like linear predictions based on extremely shallow data points.

I mean I get that we won't have a lot to go off of and the inflection points will be sudden changes in trends but I mean come on... This feels more like desired outcome from looking at and filtering the data to fit the hypothesis rather than forming the hypothesis and testing the data to see if it tracks.
Entropy is law and physical truths will mean that some of these predictions just can't be reality.

[–] infinitevalence@discuss.online 2 points 8 months ago (1 children)

I ignored all the projections but the data is compelling up too that point.

[–] Krauerking@lemy.lol 1 points 8 months ago (1 children)

Oh for sure. But someone needed to point out the projections are predominantly imaginary just to make sure there is a voice of reason to shooting in the dark and blindly claiming they got a bullseye.

But the actual data is interesting. And can be useful for current trends but wish it was without far flung hypotheses.

[–] eleitl@lemmy.ml 2 points 8 months ago

The author has been working on the SEEDS model for about two decades. The projections are reasonable, since it is about lack of new fossil energy reserve discovery at long-term declining EROEI and new growth coming largely from debt. The fight of technology against geology has been valiant, but ultimatively doomed. If anything the model is perhaps too conservative, since it underestimates EROEI decline and does not address the Seneca effect.

See the other posts in this community for different angles on the same problem.