I really don’t hate Stroll like some mindlessly so, but the l problem is that even if he has the most dominant car on the grid during a race, it’s very likely he’ll still be beaten by either his teammate or those in slower cars.

He has 1/3 the amount of points as Alonso right now and is sitting down in 8th while driving what has overall been the second best car this season. This isn’t new either. Almost every season he’s been in F1 he has underperformed compared to his teammate/car capability.

It’ll be interesting to see how Aston navigates the pressure of having almost all the components of a championship winning team, except for Stroll.

Depending on if Merc shows the same form in Canada it's a Lewis/George/Alonso toss up for me. If not, Alonso. Stroll could happen in theory but it would require Alonso having a shit day.

Alonso wouldnt care about stroll winning I don't think. He'd just be happy.

Alonso won't care if Stroll wins a single race in a season where the WDC isn't on. He'll be happy for him and the team.

If Stroll wins a race when the WDC is on, it means Alonso also has a race winning car and he'll be backing himself to be better over the season.

As for the question in the title, Hamilton, Alonso, Russel, Leclerc, in order of most likely descending.

Looking at the cars that stand a chance (more or less) I think any Aston Martin, Ferrari or Mercedes driver has a change of winning a race. For the rest it basically needs some freak event to deliver another winner.

At this time Alonso Lewis And because no one knows what the hell is happening and where they are gonna be in each race. Lando

I'd probably say the three most likely are Alonso, Hamilton and Leclerc. But will probably need a good/bad luck contribution from the weather or Red Bull.

Boring guesses: In order of probability, Alonso, Russell, then Hamilton, with the latter two being closely matched, and Hamilton's form seeming to improve as Mercedes gets the car working.

Fun guesses: Leclerc, when the stars align such that on same day, the pit wall doesn't trip over its own shoelaces, Charles doesn't try to 11/10ths the car through an imaginary Mario Kart shortcut that's actually just an Armco, and Max has mechanical trouble, or Ocon, when the skies open up with torrential rain that red flags the race at just the right time in the pit stop cycle.

I think Hamilton will get there first. Afraid to say if but I don’t think Alonso will get his win.