this post was submitted on 12 Oct 2023
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12
RFK Jr. running might cause an upset in the US election of 2024. (lemmy.world)
submitted 1 year ago by TheOneWithTheHair@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world
28 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 

So what if RFK Jr. continues to run? Well it's possible he spoils Biden's chance at being re-elected. I fully expect the downvote brigade to visit this post and bury it, but at least consider what I am saying.

In 2020

Winner: 306 (Joe Biden)

Loser: 232 (Donald J. Trump)

Trump versus Biden? Young voters not excited about choosing between oldest candidates ever

The prospect of choosing between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, both more than twice their age, underwhelms the growing number of voters under the age of 40.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/10/12/young-voters-not-excited-by-trump-biden-rematch-of-oldest-candidates-ever/70796232007/?gnt-cfr=1

So how many voters are typically that young?

https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/number-of-individuals-who-voted-in-thousands-and-individuals-who-voted-as-a-share-of-the-voter-population-by-age/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D

(who voted in thousands)

  • 18-24 | 7,372
  • 25-34 | 15,396
  • 35-44 | 18,401
  • 45-64 | 43,661
  • 65+ | 37,086

To make this easier, that's roughly a third of voters.

  • up to 44 | 41,169
  • 45 or older | 80,747

Robert Francis Kennedy Jr. (currently age 69) isn't young, but is younger than Biden (currently 80) or Trump (currently 77)

Now, some will vote for Biden, and some will vote Trump. But could a 12% tipping occur? Possibly. If RFK Jr. runs, and saps away votes from Biden, it would only take 37 electoral votes (about 12%) from Biden's 2020 performance to put Biden at 269 votes. It takes 270 to win.

But there's no way Trump's gonna get enough to win, you say. He doesn't have to:

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/faq

What happens if no presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes?

If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes, the Presidential election leaves the Electoral College process and moves to Congress.

The House of Representatives elects the President from the three (3) Presidential candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each State delegation has one vote and it is up to the individual States to determine how to vote. (Since the District of Columbia is not a State, it has no State delegation in the House and cannot vote). A candidate must receive at least 26 votes (a majority of the States) to be elected.

The Senate elects the Vice President from the two (2) Vice Presidential candidates with the most electoral votes. Each Senator casts one vote for Vice President. (Since the District of Columbia is has no Senators and is not represented in the vote). A candidate must receive at least 51 votes (a majority of Senators) to be elected.

If the House of Representatives fails to elect a President by Inauguration Day, the Vice-President Elect serves as acting President until the deadlock is resolved in the House.

House

This data is from Sept. 20 https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/20/politics/mccarthy-house-speaker-vote-margin-numbers-dg/index.html

  • R 221 | 31 far-right Republicans who have repeatedly voted against McCarthy + 18 moderate Republicans in districts Biden won in 2020 + 172 other Republicans
  • D 212 | 212 Democrats
  • X | 2 vacancies

All it takes is a party-line vote and a Republican becomes Prez.

Senate

This data is from https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm

117th Congress (2021–2023)

  • Majority Party: Democrats (48 seats)

  • Minority Party: Republicans (50 seats)

  • Other Parties: 2 Independents (all caucus with the Democrats)

  • Total Seats: 100

All it takes is a party-line vote and a Democrat becomes VP.

TL;DR It could be Trump (R) and Harris (D)...

top 28 comments
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[–] MegaUltraChicken@lemmy.world 47 points 1 year ago (3 children)

I have yet to see compelling evidence that RFK pulls more Democratic voters than Republicans. And the more attention he gets, the worse he'll do.

[–] kobra@lemm.ee 22 points 1 year ago (4 children)

Isn’t RFK Jr super anti-vaxx? I know nothing of his platform but I don’t see him taking D voters based on that.

[–] TechyDad@lemmy.world 18 points 1 year ago

Yes. He also thinks that the COVID virus was made by China to infect everyone except them and Jews. (RFK Jr is highly anti-semitic also.) I'll bet it will come as a huge shock to anyone who is Chinese or Jewish who got COVID that they actually couldn't get it because they should be immune.

[–] Squibbles@lemmy.ca 12 points 1 year ago

He's also been going on about all kinds of conspiracy theories, appearing on foxnews, speaking at CPAC, etc. Other than the Kennedy name he doesn't seem appealing to Democrats at all as far as I can tell. Also his own siblings have spoken out against him.

[–] lagomorphlecture@lemm.ee 9 points 1 year ago

Extra super antivax. Based on that alone most Democrats would refuse to vote for him because it makes him sound like one hell of a Republican.

[–] rayyyy@kbin.social 8 points 1 year ago

The orange guy found out that RFK would take more votes from him so he will be going after him.

[–] RojoSanIchiban@lemmy.world 10 points 1 year ago

It's very clear the GOP thinks he's more of a problem for them than Democrats because as soon as he declared he's going to run as an independent, they began attacking him profusely, calling him radical left, electric cars for everyone, yadda yadda.

[–] KevonLooney@lemm.ee 5 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Exactly. Democrats woke up in 2016. They have won tons of elections since, including midterms. They are not going to fooled by the wolf in Grandma's outfit.

[–] ripcord@kbin.social 2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

They stirred a little, but I wouldn't say they've woken up. Especially people 35 and under who still aren't showing up to vote (although most people aren't)

[–] KevonLooney@lemm.ee 5 points 1 year ago

That's actually 100% wrong. "Most people" did turn up to vote in 2020. 67% of citizens over age 18.

Voters under 35 increased the most. 57% of them voted.

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/04/record-high-turnout-in-2020-general-election.html

[–] ashok36@lemmy.world 42 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Rfk Jr will win zero electoral votes. I would stake my life and my entire family's lives on it.

[–] ApostleO@startrek.website 22 points 1 year ago

Yeah, the real question is if he saps enough votes to flip a swing state.

[–] TheOneWithTheHair@lemmy.world 2 points 1 year ago

Another likely scenario is that many (not all) of the young voters (and independents) simply don't vote. This gives older and polarized voters more voting power. Then it could become a Trump/Hillary repeat.

[–] Kalkaline@leminal.space 2 points 1 year ago

As long as you're not betting against a Sicilian when death is on the line, I think you're good.

[–] bostonbananarama@lemmy.world 20 points 1 year ago (1 children)

In 1992 Ross Perot got 18.9% of the vote, nearly 20 million Americans voted for him, and he didn't win a single electoral vote.

[–] TechyDad@lemmy.world 2 points 1 year ago (2 children)

The problem isn't that RFK Jr will get Electoral Votes. The issue is that he might take votes away from Biden and let Trump win.

Say you have 60 Biden voters and 50 Trump voters. Biden wins easily. If RFK Jr enters the race and gets 11 of those Biden voters to vote for him, then Biden will get 49 and will lose to Trump's 50.

[–] nix@merv.news 4 points 1 year ago (2 children)

What would be biden voter is going to vote for rfk? More likely he’d gain support from Trump fans

[–] TechyDad@lemmy.world 4 points 1 year ago

RFK Jr's hope there is that a low information voter would vote for the Kennedy name over Biden. You're right, though, in that the slightest bit of attention to who RFK Jr is will drain all support from the left.

Apparently, conservatives are freaking out so much over RFK Jr pulling away Trump votes that they are actively calling RFK Jr a socialist (and every other trigger phrase they use).

[–] pmw@lemmy.world 1 points 1 year ago

Never-trump republicans, new-age anti-science liberals, and yeah low information voters who just recognize his last name. But I too would guess he would siphon more from trump voters.

[–] bostonbananarama@lemmy.world 2 points 1 year ago

The original article is discussing the possibility that RFK Jr. could syphon enough electoral votes to ensure that no candidate reaches 270, thereby moving the vote to the House. I don't see that as likely or possible.

I suppose he could take Biden voters, but I think it's much more likely that he takes Trump leaning voters.

[–] hperrin@lemmy.world 9 points 1 year ago

He’s on the side of conservatives on a lot of issues they care about, so imo, he’s more likely to take votes from Trump. Especially since there are conservatives who don’t like Trump, but will never vote for anyone with a D next to their name, even if they were Jesus Christ himself.

[–] BassTurd@lemmy.world 3 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Trump supporters are some of the dumbest fucks in the world, and I don't think that even they are dumb enough to vote for RFKKK. Not a single Democrat or left leaning individual will vote for him. He's got nothing to bring to the table except name recognition, and that will be worthless the moment people that don't know him hear him talk or once he gets more national coverage.

[–] ripcord@kbin.social 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Bunch of people said something very similar about Trump

[–] BassTurd@lemmy.world 3 points 1 year ago

That's true, but I think that what he did can't be replicated as effectively. When Trump came on the scene, he spoke to the idiots like nobody had before. They soaked that shit up and all jizzed in their collective pants. Since then, others have tried to speak as hateful as him, but it doesn't strike the same way because it's not new. Honestly, if he sticks around to the general, he'll get some votes, but it won't be from anyone that was ever going to vote for Biden.

[–] CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world 2 points 1 year ago (2 children)

And now Cenk threw his hat in, too.

[–] dcpDarkMatter@kbin.social 3 points 1 year ago

He's not even eligible to be president. Not sure how that's gonna work.

[–] PrincessLeiasCat@sh.itjust.works 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Wait what

[–] CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world 1 points 1 year ago

Yeah, Cenk announced he is running too, since he wants Biden to not run. Not sure how that's going to work...and this is after listening to a session with Anna asking him various questions, etc.