this post was submitted on 18 Jun 2024
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Gas gets to the gas station somehow. Obviously it isn't the same as transporting batteries back and forth but it's bad faith to say this is completely unprecedented logistics problem. I am under the impression that battery health could be screened at the swap facility and would require a small subset to be returned to a hub for additional inspection or repair.
Yea gas is a one way trip, and then it's into the end customer. It's not an unprecedented logistics problem, it's just a logistics problem that ends up requiring a ton of more energy. Batteries need to be able to charge way quicker and hold a longer charge, that's the problem that should be getting worked, not a how to transport battery packs around.
And that is being worked on. Billions of dollars has been going there. We have solid state batteries in the lab that can charge much faster and safer, and all sorts of companies promising to bring them to production in a couple of years. Do people really think we’re farther from that being reality than from building out an entirely new global infrastructure that will become obsolete before it’s completed?
The issue is we haven't had real breakthroughs in battery tech since the 70s, we've gotten slightly better improvements but we're still using the same base. We've had tons of promises in the lab but nothing has actually made it out. Hopefully there will be a breakthrough but so far there hasn't been.
Maybe you should take a look at some these charts, especially power density and cost
There have been huge improvements
They got heavier to hold more charge. Nothing in any of these charts proves the tech has advanced drastically since the 70s. Seriously the 2nd chart just says they got cheaper basically for how much you get. That's like saying HDDs are cheaper now more than ever, but still use a spinning disk technology... it's like we never leaped to SSDs. That's the jump we need.
Did you notice the charts showing Wh/kg? Since 1991, the charge a battery can hold per weight has gone up 500%, even while prices have dropped a similar percentage. That’s huge, and that’s what makes EVs (and even smartphones) so practical now, but not back then. We have made that jump
Yes it's still not enough, that's been my whole point, all we've done is like if SSDs were never invented. Like we're still stuck on spinning disk tech. We're still lacking the charge speed and the range. Yes batteries are better than 1970s when the current design was created, but we haven't made that jump from HDD to SSD.
Truck still has to go somewhere. Obviously it's lighter but it doesn't blip out of existence. Amazon trucks to back to hub after delivery, FedEx, USPS. Both technologies can advance simultaneously and mutually.
Edit: some wording
I'm expecting drones to take a ton of the short space deliveries sooner than EV trucks.
To me, this is the biggest argument against battery swapping.
We have this huge industry for refining, storing, distributing, distributing ending gasoline that we can entirely dismantle with EVs. All that pollution: gone. All that wasted land: gone. All those unnecessary levels of profit-seeking: gone. Now you want to choose a technology that requires rebuilding all that, except two way? You want to force the new technology to conform to old infrastructure ideas?
How can we not prefer the alternative of “just plug it in wherever you are”? How can we not prefer the rare opportunity of simplifying something? How can we not forgo all those unnecessary profit seekers?
At the moment my two biggest fears against buying an EV is it catching fire in my garage and it dying after 5 years then having to buy a 30k battery. Once technology advances that doesn't happen I will buy and I would love your plan. Why can't this be a stop gap?
It already doesn’t happen.
Swappable batteries can’t be a stop gap because it would require a huge infrastructure buildout over many years that would become a lost investment, versus technology that’s already here and improving every year. Starting from scratch with swap stations, vehicle design, industry standards, vs hundreds of thousands of charging stations already deployed.
If you think chargers aren’t available enough or expanding enough, consider that they’re known technology, relatively cheap, installable by any electrician, using a national power infrastructure that already exists. Installing a level 2 charger at my house was equivalent to a new stove circuit. I mean I agree we need to speed up the buildout, but think how cheap and easy these are compared to developing an entire new infrastructure from scratch. How simple a ”plug” is compared to a robot that can handle a one ton battery. How long it took to standardize an effing plug, compared to standardizing entire battery packs. How can anyone think this would go faster?
I looked more into fires and battery replacement and agree with your stats, much appreciated for the info.
However, I never said it swappable would be faster for expanding. I said it was safer and allow for battery integrity evaluation. I agree the ideal solution would be chargers in homes as long as battery health and saftey are reasonable which they already reaching that point.
I see alot of talk in these threads about how bad it would be to make infrastructure and need to invest. But our current infrastructure didn't just show up. I bet when the first cars came out people with horses said the same thing. Thinking how much it would cost to build all these gas stations and refineries. Investment will have to happen and EV is the future. Obviously home chargers are cheaper and again the ideal solution as technology advances and the grid can keep up.