this post was submitted on 08 Jun 2023
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I listened to the recording, and read the transcript, and I can... I can see it. Not overtly, not intentionally - but the dev did not communicate clearly at all.
Twice the Reddit representative asking him to repeat himself, and still he failed to actually specify his intentions. The wording in the transcript never actually expanded what the dev was saying ('buy out Apollo'). The evasive language made it sound like a shakedown, 'pay me $10mil to make this all go away'.
I linked the dev's own transcript above, but the actual quotes from the dev:
Now, we know that what the dev is doing is essentially offering to outright sell Apollo to end the demand it represents to Reddit. He doesn't expect them to take it, but a lot of users asked if it were possible, and he's suggesting it anyway.
But the wording of all of this never specifies 'buying Apollo'. It sounds like he wants Reddit to like... pay him his 'protection fee'. I'm sure he means 'go quiet' as in like, 'go quietly into that good night' (shut down) or 'stop being so demanding' (be retooled), in fact he later clarifies he means the latter and the Reddit representative apologises profusely.
But man, that was worded so poorly, and he was given two opportunities to clarify, and he just... didn't. Only when the Reddit stand-in asked if he was suggesting Reddit buy his silence and compliance did he clarify that wasn't at all what he was saying.
It was completely unintentional, no doubt. But it was miscommunication of the highest order, and it damaged the lines of communication so irrevocably it probably incentivised Reddit to cease negotiations completely.
The problem is this, from the transcript:
Me: I said "If you want Apollo to go quiet". Like in terms of- I would say it's quite loud in terms of its API usage.
Reddit: Oh, go quiet as in that. Okay, got it. Got it. Sorry.
Me: Like it's a very-
Reddit: Yeah, that's a complete misinterpretation on my end.
Me: Yeah. No, no, it's all good.
Reddit: I apologize. I apologize immediately.
The "threat" part was resolved right there. Steve just wanted to retcon the conversation as a way to dog Christian. He didn't anticipate Christian was gonna roll in with receipts.
Yeah, I found that interesting. I generally don't attribute to malice what can be attributed to incompetence, and I imagine either (or both) of these is likely:
The conclusion doesn't have to be that Spez believed him, then personally as an individual decided "oh, actually, fuck it" and decided to lie about it anyway. In fact I'd say that of the three possibilities, that's the least likely.
I listened to the recording and it was .. messy. Christian wasn't clear at all and it seems his intention of making what he described as a lighthearted jest fell like a led balloon at the Reddit guys feet. To my mind it would have been a very important conversation and therefore if I was Christian I would have kept it business-like and clear. It still doesn't excuse Reddit for weaponizing the conversation and screaming blackmail which makes the CEO come across as a man-baby throwing a fit.
I agree. When I read and listened to the conversation, it's mostly clear that it isn't what he meant but it could definitely be construed in a different way. I think it was a pretty poor choice of words to demonstrate how much of the userbase uses third party apps and how much sway they actually have.
That said, it is what it is. Reddit's PR team is definitely going to try to spin this as negatively as possible even if the Apollo dev is only trying to make a point. At least there were recordings so we can come to our own conclusions.
I imagine his intend was to imply - or at least put pressure on - the idea of Apollo actually costing them $20mil was an inflated number. The idea that it was a real and on-going cost, and had been for a decade, and he's basically daring them to buy Apollo. Because if that number was real, they should leap at the chance:
I believe that's why it was 'mostly a joke' - he never expected them to take it, he doesn't believe it actually costs them that much. It's not what he's taking from them - it's what they feel entitled to take from the users, and they blame him for being in the way.
Personally I agree it doesn't cost that much - I believe they believe it does, but only because they look at Apollo's userbase and activity, and decided "oh boy, if we could sell ads to those users and sell their data at those rates, this is how much we would make" and decided that means Apollo is somehow costing them that. I don't think 'opportunity cost' is an appropriate concept to price on, because it relies on obviously false assumptions.
Apollo is definitely costing them server bandwidth, as are the other apps. And it seems all the devs were ready and willing to cover the costs, even negotiate how their users could still be a revenue stream. But Reddit believes they were owed the same profit of Apollo's users that they would make off of their own, and I think that's nonsense.
After all, if somebody pirates Photoshop, it's stupidly naïve to think that every single one of those users would be willing to pay Adobe $80 a month (in some countries that's more than they make in 3+ months). And if somebody goes to a friend's house and watches a Blu-Ray with them, it's absurd to expect they mail a check for $20 to their local theatre.
The expectation that somebody using something convenient/free would use it just as much if it was demanding/unaffordable is... like, they're not stupid, right? They can't possibly be that stupid to think that was even attainable profit for them. I just don't understand why they think that 'opportunity cost' is real.
I think a back of the envelope cost for what each user makes reddit per month was something around $0.22 per month. Which is nowhere near the $2.5 per month their API pricing was suggesting.
This wasn't a question of opportunity cost, and setting prices in good faith. They simply wanted to kill any competition and somehow thought they could get away with this. Hopefully we can show them they can't with the blackout and migrating to other online communities.
Yeah, I felt the same when I read his post on Reddit. He worded things incredibly badly, and even I, when reading his post, got the impression that he wanted 10 million dollars to "make their problem go away". It almost feels like he was testing the water by being vague about it, before backpedaling when he realized they weren't into that.
[Edit] I get that he was probably trying to prove the point that their price was ridiculous and Apollo couldn't be costing them that much, but man. Terrible way to communicate that. You're not trying to sell your old TV to some guy in a bar here!