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Biden is dramatically out of touch with voters on Gaza. He may lose because of it
(www.theguardian.com)
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Until we get rid of FPTP voting nationally, 3rd parties cannot win and can only spoil. The best we can hope for is a third party is popular enough that they displace another party. Which would be a years to decades long change as local, state and national representatives get replaced slowly.
More likely what would happen is what the GOP did to the 2 contenders: the Tea Party and Insurrection Party. The GOP just absorbed and changed to meet them.