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What muscle lies behind the ICC? Genuinely asking.
The 124 countries on this list.
Unfortunately as you can see from a glance at the linked map, although much of the world is on board with it, the US and China refuse, and the rest of us are not militarily strong enough to stop them from carrying out or supporting war crimes. The usual story of this is why we can't have nice things.
Note that the ICC is a court of last resort, it was set up for cases where people lacked the power or the infrastructure to try cases of crimes against humanity etc in their local jurisdictions.
It's an admirable project and the world needs it.
The UN.
So nothing.
Well the way it's worked in the past if the country they live in won't cooperate is, if they travel the destination country will arrest them. But that's really just the cherry on top as far as international politics are concerned. Once a leader is officially labeled a War Criminal it's shockingly easy to sanction them, their country, and their organizations. And basically turn their country into how Iran gets treated. So the consequences are farther reaching than just whether or not Netanyahu actually gets arrested.
Right now Israeli and American diplomats are probably planning -
A. How to prevent an adverse ruling
B. How to prevent Netanyahu from being held personally responsible so he can jettison some people and move on.
C. How to survive a worst case ruling.
In no world is Biden planning to cut Israel loose. But it could easily turn into a full blown campaign issue in 2028.
This is interesting.
What happens if a country's leader is labeled a war criminal, but the US and its allies refuse to sanction it?
There have been multiple instances where Israel's allies have refused to vote against it at the UN, and if that doesn't make a difference, the US has vetoed any vote.
We just might find out. From my perspective it's a very interesting thing to watch.
I'm with you.