this post was submitted on 17 Mar 2024
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Just like self driving! In 2010 it was almost there, just needed a few more years...
We'll have cold fusion in 10 more years‽
I really don't think there's more examples of optimistic predictions than there are pessimistic ones.
The discoveries made in recent years definitely point to an emergent incredibly useful set of tools that it would be amiss to pretend wouldn't eventually replace junior developers in different disciplines. It's just that without juniors there will never be any seniors. And someone needs to babysit those juniors. So what we get is not something that can replace an entire workforce in a long long while even if top brass would love that
Yes actually (except more than a few years).
Waymo is already operating a robotaxi service in 3 cities, now they just need to expand and find a way to make it not lose money.
Sounds like they just need a few more years...
Until what? 100% replacement of human-driven cars? Being rolled out for areas covering 50% of the population? Where is the goal line here?
We are already at the stage of commercial operation, with rides available to the general public - even though only in a few locations.
Sure, it's far from being everywhere, but why pretend that progress has stalled, when it clearly hasn't?
My point is that the 'give it a few more years' mantra gets repeated for decades
Go see videos of how well FSD V12 performs and you're up for a surprise. Full self driving sucks untill it doesn't. AIDRIVR puts up good content if you want recommendations.