this post was submitted on 05 Mar 2024
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cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/7362179

I'm looking to see what coastal areas would be impacted, what regions would get above certain temperatures , etc, we all see sporadic invidual image of these predictions in articles online but I wonder if there's a tool for that, ideally open source.

EDIT: answers (unsure if O.S.)

https://www.floodmap.net/

https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/

https://wcrp-cmip.org/cmip-phase-6-cmip6/

https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html?v=24.6.0

https://zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-figures/

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[–] gigachad@feddit.de 2 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Absolutely understandable. Maybe there is some easy tool around, but I see some potential problems.

Questions such as "Is this zone habitable in 2035" or "Will this area be ocean in 2050" are extremely hard to answer with our current knowledge and available data. As you probably know, climate scientists speak of probabilities, as projections e.g.for temperature are highly uncertain, especially in the more far away future. If there is a tool answering such questions, you probably can't trust it. Then, you will likely not get a one does it all tool, as the questions OP asked are highly specific. All in all the matter is very complex and there are no easy answer. You need some kind of motivation to gather a certain amount of background knowledge about the topic.

I think what comes closest to what OP wants is downloading model results from largely accepted climate models such as CMIP6. They usually come in special file formats that can efficiently store geospatial time series, such as netCDF or HDF5. There are tools like Panoply where you can do some very nice visualisations. You do not need to code neither is the software very complex. QGIS and ArcGIS are overkill here, as you would not want to do spatial analysis but only visualize.

The work you would need to do is 1) understanding what you want - there is not a single result, instead you have climate projections under several different scenarios, model assumptions, input data etc. You need to figure out what to choose. 2) Have a decent feeling of geospatial visualization techniques. Cartography is a complex field, and correctly visualizing data is pretty hard.

I am sorry I cannot provide easy solution. WhatI can offer is helping to acquire data if you what you want and also I can give technical support on visualization software. Maybe also give you some guidelines on how to interpret a figure.

[–] delirious_owl@discuss.online 1 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Sea level rise is happening and will displace a lot of people who live at sea level, but its not going to rise a ton. Just get land at least 10 meters above sea level and you'll be fine.

[–] chebra@mstdn.io 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

@delirious_owl @gigachad

I hope you are joking. That's average. So 10m above sea level, but washed away twice per year by the more energetic storms and floods.

[–] delirious_owl@discuss.online 1 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (1 children)

Well dont build on sand or a cliff...

[–] chebra@mstdn.io 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

@delirious_owl Oh wow, look at this guy, he just solved it all! Now we can finally put all the climate change worries behind. Thanks for saving the world.

[–] delirious_owl@discuss.online 1 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago)

Climate change is real. But my point is that you don't need to execute a climate simulator to find land that will be liveable for the next some-odd generations (barring nuclear war, which is a much more difficult thing to plan-for and survive)