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NEVER FORGET XMPP!
Basically Google did to XMPP what Meta will inevitably do to ActivityPub. That’s pretty much the only reason I agree with defederating from Threads.
Concerns about diluting the fediverse with normies are silly, since you can join communities that are interesting to you. And on the whole, a larger population on the fediverse is good for everyone.
Google stopped supporting XMPP, which sucked, but did it have any effects beyond that?
Google’s actions just restored XMPP to the same status it would have been if they’d never supported it in the first place.
This is my take. I honestly don't see how Google didn't just extend XMPP well past when it would have naturally died, and they only pulled the plug when it was clear nothing was going to come of it. I acknowledge that this is an unpopular opinion here, but I feel like that's just because this community is very biased when it comes to this kind of thing.
Xmpp via the jabber app was growing organically as a cross platform chat app with first mover advantage. My take is that google stood on the shoulders of the open source giants and used the early adopter community as a free quality and assurance team for Google talk until they couldn't take any more value (users or q&a volunteering). It is possible that jabber could have declining the whole time but the fact that it still exists and has lasted longer than apps killed by Google means that there is more evidence of it not needing Google.