this post was submitted on 05 Feb 2024
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Ha yeah in the same way we're still using the same old pn semiconductor wafers from the 90s - it's basically the same thing which is why I still use my p120 and it's just as good as any of these modern machines with their fancy 7nm pathways!
The batteries used today are much better than old batteries and the manufacturing technologies are far superior also, it depends on the device of course but energy density, charge speed, reliability has increased also manufacturing cost and requirements, low lithium batteries are getting more common for example.
Plus it's getting increasingly likely that the lithium in your battery has already been a different battery previously thanks to new recycling methods so that's pretty cool.
You're right that it's refined more but I was more hoping for a truly different combination. What we've done to li-ion seems akin to how we refined combustion engines.
To truly achieve a massive performance leap it seems like we need an actual different combination. I recall CATL making sodium-ion batteries. Lithium is still a rather scarce metal which poses a problem for mass production.
Yeah its weird tech is moving so absurdly fast at that moment that people seem to have gotten used to huge breakthroughs and want one ever week, like with ai how astonishing developments aren't even implemented yet but people are saying it's not impressive or development has stalled.
There's a lot of really good stuff that's coming to market slowly, the main problem is lithium is so cheap and easy at the moment that it's not really worth it for anyone to take a risk on something new. It is happening but it'll take a while for the special use cases to filter though and it to reach a more general market.
Another good example is wave power, there are now working commercial devices and very successful test projects but because it's complex and still has high planning and development costs associated with it everyone is sticking to wind and solar. There will be a point soon where tidal generation sneaks into common use just like desalination did
Hardly anyone is even aware how many of the areas we got told would have water wars now have desalination partnerships and plenty of water to go round. They can even extract lithium in the same process and we're starting to see that getting built too.
I think the real thing is going to be when the various strands of ai combine with the incredibly good robotics we have developed over the last few decades, people are going to be shocked how much it'll speed up every physical industry. Being able to show the robot 'this surface here needs to be sanded smooth ready for spraying' and it can understand the request, evolve a movement solution and continually check it's work as it goes.
The problem is everyone knows that's coming and it's a game changer so no one is really interested in the amazing advances we keep making or the more basic tools. Companies aren't going to invest five years researching and developing the sort of product we can make now when they know other companies as already investing big in general purposes tools that'll ruin all those markets.