this post was submitted on 28 Jan 2024
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More? Welp, I'm gonna keep saying it. Take with a grain of salt, I'm a tech guy not a geopolitical knowledge base:
The US is trying to move TSMC operations to US soil.
I'll copy and paste it again:
I will keep reposting my thoughts on what's going on.
Xi told Biden that China plans to invade Taiwan. This is an act of diplomacy, giving the US a chance to prevent this from triggering WWIII.
China wants Taiwan for a myriad of reasons, not the least of which is TSMC, coupled with the AI embargo the US has levied on China. China must invade Taiwan if they want to be relevant in the tech sector 10 years from now.
Suddenly, Intel, who was once competitive with TSMC and now relies on them entirely, is telling us that "we will be beyond TSMC by 2024" really? No one's buying it. Sounds like a publicity headline to satisfy military brass or some senators or something.
Now we're investing directly in domestic chip manufacturing.
I'm surprised it's not more cash tbh.
Update: it is more cash. A lot more.
The US is trying to effectively move TSMC operations to US soil, in some form or another.
China invading Taiwan is a fantasy for the foreseeable future.
We have seen what hastily deployed US weapons can do against Russian hardware in the Ukrainian invasion.
Taiwan has been stockpiling US weapons(missiles, jets, tanks) for decades, and Chinese hardware and doctrine is not as proven as the Russians. China will see immense losses for their prize, and that’s if nobody intervenes.
Taiwan doesn't have the defensive depth Ukraine has. Ukraine took days to respond in any organized way and the world took weeks to respond with additional aid. An invasion of Taiwan can be decided in a single day if China manages to land large quantities of troops and push into the island.
While the beach landing part makes their job tough, if China merely thinks they can overcome that singular hurdle, there is a very, very real possibility they will take a shot at it.
Take a look at Taiwan's inventory of anti-ship missiles and coastal defenses and get back to me. Last I checked Taiwan has roughly 1 harpoon for every Chinese combat ship, assuming China wants to commit their entire navy to the invasion.
If China doesn't commit every ship to the invasion, now you have more than 1 harpoon per Chinese ship.
Nevermind other types of anti-ship defenses and domestically produced missiles.
And again, Taiwan has had these weapons for DECADES. They train on them, then know how to deploy them. It will not take days to respond, because they are ready. They will simply launch and the missiles will sink some ships.
If China decides to invade it will be at the cost of a significant portion of their navy and army before they even reach land. Then China has to face significant risk of retaliation from Taiwan's cruise missile fleet, some of which can hit as far as Beijing.
Then at this point China will risk their various border disputes being contested.
And all this for what? Some destroyed chip factories and the CCP flag over Taipei?
China can certainly invade Taiwan, but my point is the cost is too high for it to be a logical move.