this post was submitted on 15 Jan 2024
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Tech illiterate Windows users seem to have no problems removing replacing Edge/Bing with Chrome/Google (which, if you've ever tried recently, is quite a painful process - though I suspect it's a lot less painful in the EU where the dark patterns would land them in hot water).
I think the App Store will only be able to maintain it's dominance in Europe if it's a better experience, for both users and developers, than any of the alternatives.
The improvements Apple will make to the store to protect their dominant position will be significant.
Are users actually replacing with Chrome on desktop? As often as you're implying?
I've assumed the vast majority of the significant Edge market share has been due to cases where it's shipped as the default (or Windows pestering users to make it the default). And the majority of Chrome market share the last 5+ years coming from Google deals with OEMs making Chrome the default. Not due to the majority of people seeking out the browser theyve determined is best (or are familiar with). And due to corporate mandates, for business PCs. I don't have data to back this up, though.
Obviously, people do intentionally switch to either browser for various reasons, but I'd be amazed if it was more than like 10% of the cases at this point.
Look at more practical example. Steam, is so big that other publishers said, no we won't put our games in your store anymore. We don't want to pay you 30%, we will make our own stores. Few years later guess where they came crawling back. I mean really big publishers like EA and Ubisoft, on Windows where you can have a store at the snap of your fingers, you don't need Steam. But because Steam is so big and all people buy from Steam, you need to sell there.
In case of Apple it will be even worse, who will dare to not publish in their App Store and leave 99% revenue on the table? Yeah.
I think Steam is not a good comparison. People go to Steam on PC for expensive applications (video games), and for good customer service. Steam actually presents a good value proposition for maintaining your game library. People refused to go to other stores because other stores were crap.
As I understand, there is a significant amount of trivial but essential apps that could be made, and will never get on the App Store, like a calculator that has no ads and no in-app payments. Or for companies like Epic who have big enough IPs that they don't care about discoverability, because they are already viral.
Yes, exposure is a big factor, but if you don't need the exposure, you don't need it. Xbox Game Pass is not on Steam. Microsoft Flight Sim and DCS World both have their non-steam presences alive and kicking, with DCS simply giving you a much better deal if you buy outside Steam, so the niche community around it mostly does.