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this post was submitted on 14 Jan 2024
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You're mixing up the Fermi paradox and the Drake equation.
Assuming you meant the Drake equation, more than half of the variables we have absolutely no statistical basis to decide on a fraction. Obviously they are non-zero, but they could be extremely improbable. We only have one example of intelligent life developing radio communications. Any estimate of a statistical likelihood of that using Earth as an example is meaningless without other examples.
Some pessimistic estimates give solutions as small 9.1 x 10^-13 which indicates we would be alone.
The Fermi Paradox riffs on the optimistic answer to Drake's Equation. If other intelligent life is a certainty, why haven't we found them yet?