To comment on my own link, I still think (per comments elsewhere), that right from the get-go this is a 3-way play orchestrated by Putin to get a strong fight-ready leader on his western flank, and north of Ukraine.

I do not think it has much at all to do with a coup or exile.

[–] Rinox@feddit.it 12 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Doubt it, any military buildup would be spotted weeks before any possible "surprise offensive" were to take place. It's one of the most monitored borders in the world afterall.

[–] pinwurm@lemmy.world 3 points 1 year ago

Indeed. People forget that that satellites exist and it’s not very easy to hide traveling military equipment and troops.

Months before the war, every news outlet was warning about a buildup on the Russian border.

[–] cxtinac@sh.itjust.works 1 points 1 year ago

Good point, but Putin plays the long game, I suspect this is strategic manoeuvring for 12-18 months from now.

[–] pinwurm@lemmy.world 8 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Experts are saying that’s unlikely, though. Why ruin the credibility of the Ministry of Defense if they needed a strong leader? Especially one that’s openly criticized the war to begin with. Pretty bad for morale.

If anything, we’ve learned Putin has a lot less orchestral than expected.

Paramilitary private armies are expensive and unpredictable. And technically illegal under Russian law.

At a time when resources are tight and public trust in government is flaky, it’s makes sense for Putin to consolidate Wagner into the Russian army.

Prigozhin isn’t a brilliant military strategist (to be fair, neither is Shoigu). He’s a businessman who earned $2B through Wagner milking State money. The dissolution of Wagner is the end of that revenue stream, and possibly his own life.

IMO, it seems to me like the mutiny is a last ditch negotiating tactic or emotional outburst as a response to losing his livelihood.

Or.. we’ll learn in the coming months and years that there’s a lot more to this story.

[–] cxtinac@sh.itjust.works 2 points 1 year ago

Fair enough, I couldn't disagree at all.

Would be wonderful to sneak a peak at a historical analysis from ++50yrs: either it's Putin's masterstroke, or he's struggling to tamp down prima donna Prigohzin with his buddy Lukashenko's help. Occam's razor would certainly point to the latter.

[–] Rob@lemmy.world 4 points 1 year ago

Every analysis I’ve read from reputable sources have come to the conclusion that this was bad for Putin. I think I’ll stick to Occam’s razor on this one.

[–] Screak42@lemmy.ml 4 points 1 year ago

yea. the whole thing smells like a dead fish in sun.