this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
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Fair points all in.
The long and the short will hang on wether Prigozhin has loyalists installed at the head of FSB, Ministery of Interior, and Ministery of Defence...
If not, It'll rank amongst the biggest blunders in Russian political history, and Prigozhin will be dead in short order.
If yes, Prigozhin basically is in control of the Russian Federation in all but name.
My money's on 'blunder'. However, I don't see Prigozhin being killed anytime soon. The criminal case against him was closed and he's moving to Belarus. He's incredibly popular - especially amongst Russian Ultranationalists, they'd risk martyring him.
Then again, moving to Belarus - he would be freer to criticize Russian Federation from a comfortable distance... and would be a thorn. TBD, I guess.
At what point, if ever, in Russian politics has self-canibalisation been a problem for them?
Putin has thrown down against Prigozhin, brought Alltwen arms of State to bare... and allowed him to walk away...?
If you think he's blundered I would caution about underestimating him, a brutal, ruthless bastard... for sure, but not a fool....
If he was a fool he wouldn't have got to the position he has at Wagner in the first place...!
My gut feeling is that this is a burn after reading moment.
If there’s anything following politics has taught me, is that fools can be highly effective with a little bit of luck.
And I agree with you. Fool or not, I wouldn’t underestimate the guy.